APBRmetrics

So, if the claim is that Harden is the greatest scorer since Jordan, why would a comparison against Jordan serve as a refutation of that claim? Shouldn’t we compare him against well-reputed scorers since Jordan? Like, say, Kobe or Durant or Curry?

Hi all!!! I've got another question. I have found an statistic with ORTG and DRTG, OK, there is no problem. But, then ... associated to this two statistics there is another called "Adjusted Team". How can I calculate this new value from ORTG and DRTG or is calculated from another values? ...

Is it just me, or is Amir Johnson consistently near the top of the player's ranked by APM stats?

I don't quite understand your rationale that its not right to add WPA from FTs, rebounds, etc. to the official WPA. Do you mean that the "win probability" added by an offensive rebound or made free throw is of a different kind than that added by a made field goal? To clarify, free throws ...

I don't quite understand your rationale that its not right to add WPA from FTs, rebounds, etc. to the official WPA. Do you mean that the "win probability" added by an offensive rebound or made free throw is of a different kind than that added by a made field goal?

The formula for how individual DRTG is calculated is explained fully in the book Basketball on Paper, and is summarized here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html You can see that about 80% of it is based on the team's defensive rating, and even the other 20% is largely based on te...

For those that are interested, I now have Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores (Win Probability Added at a player level) for every game of the current NBA season (through Christmas). Graphs and Box Scores Introductory Post Any feedback on presentation, features, or methodology would be welcome. I ...

There is also Defensive Stops Gained (I think that's the name), which is described in the recent Basketball Analytics (by Stephen Shea). It is fairly easy to calculate based on the numbers at stats.nba.com (just a weighted sum of the on/off eFG%, TOV%, and OREB%). I computed it for a few teams, but ...

So, any updates on this front? A lot of new stats look to be available from stats.nba.com.

What are the best statistical measures to look at today for assessing a player's defensive performance by the numbers?

This is what I posted from the other thread on Wins Probability calculator where I had also brought this up: Thanks. Supposing there was a 40% chance of that 3-pointer going in (it was a wide open look off an offensive rebound), and a 30% chance they get the offensive rebound in case of a miss. Ther...

If you want to try your hand at it, you can use my Online NBA Win Probability Calculator . Thanks. Supposing there was a 40% chance of that 3-pointer going in (it was a wide open look off an offensive rebound), and a 30% chance they get the offensive rebound in case of a miss. There's an 88.2% of t...

Checkout nbawowy.com. I think its fantastic, and kept up to date.

So there was an interesting play last night in the game between the Rockets and the Knicks, and I'm wondering what this model used here for Win Probability can tell us. The Knicks (the road team) had the ball with the score tied towards the end of the game. They got an offensive rebound on a missed ...

Thanks for doing this. What do these stats tells us about the "importance" of a given possession in a basketball game? I ask, because I find it often the case that people tend to advance the notion that all possessions, whether they come in the first or fourth quarter, are equally importan...

At the start of the game, each team is given about a 50% chance of winning currently.

Two things you may want to incorporate into this is comparative team strength and also which team has home court.