Search found 71 matches

by tarrazu
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NCAA->NBA ML using raw text of historical scouting reports: done!
Replies: 11
Views: 253

Re: NCAA->NBA ML using raw text of historical scouting reports: done!

I just finished training nearly one thousand LOOCV individual random forests machine learning models... and also scouting evaluations and raw scouting text scraped from nbadraft.net for 2006-2019 and processed through term frequency–inverse document frequency (TFIDF) then doubly dimension reduced. ...
by tarrazu
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Yes, thanks Mike G for providing numerous updates throughout the season. Maybe I checked the standings way more than I'd be willing to admit.
by tarrazu
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Yup, 2 years ago, not good at adding sometimes.
by tarrazu
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Thanks for the updates Mike G.

I like the win totals data viz from Caliban shown here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9503&start=105#p33637

If you are around for an update, would be much appreciated.
by tarrazu
Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA - DRPM
Replies: 6
Views: 3792

Re: NBA - DRPM

Might find some of my links here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9574#p33949 and link to Shea's site about his defensive ratings applicable to this discussion.
by tarrazu
Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

sndesai1 actually gets credit for best SAC projection at 29 wins I have his guess at 24, just above avg. And his numbers sum to 41.00 per team. On Caliban's table it has 29, but at this page it shows 24: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/edit#gid=10...
by tarrazu
Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How to calculate PDR and IDR?
Replies: 5
Views: 5953

Re: How to calculate PDR and IDR?

Anyone knows something? Thanks in advance!!! I looked at these awhile back and I don't have anything definitive, but was able to produce some similar rankings by running various regressions using: - adjusted on/off defensive numbers, - hustle stats (https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/) - defensiv...
by tarrazu
Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Best and worst predictions for each team. The +/- column is how much better or worse the team is doing (via b-r.com) than the avg error from our 16 or so projectionists. East +/- Best Worst Atl +1 0 emin,Crow,bbst 6 Rd11 Bos -2 0 Cica 5 shad Brk +7 3 KPel 12 Crow Cha 0 0 AnJo,KPel 10 Cica Chi -5 1 ...
by tarrazu
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:37 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Notes about RPM estimates
Replies: 13
Views: 10650

Re: Notes about RPM estimates

LMA defense has dropped off a lot this year, but how weak is the prior that he is now a -3? His box score prior must be pretty bad because I have his RAPM at only -0.81 as of 12/18. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2...
by tarrazu
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

This is mildly off topic, but I was thinking...it's well known that teams perform somewhat better when trailing, and it's common practice to account for this when calculating APM from play-by-play data. It would also make sense to account for this in calculating team ratings; for instance, a wire-t...
by tarrazu
Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Notes about RPM estimates
Replies: 13
Views: 10650

Re: Notes about RPM estimates

LMA defense has dropped off a lot this year, but how weak is the prior that he is now a -3? His box score prior must be pretty bad because I have his RAPM at only -0.81 as of 12/18. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2...
by tarrazu
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Notes about RPM estimates
Replies: 13
Views: 10650

Re: Notes about RPM estimates

LMA defense has dropped off a lot this year, but how weak is the prior that he is now a -3? He does have career high TO% and his on/off splits on defense have not been good.

Previous RPM seasons for reference:
2017-18: +0.96
2016-17: +3.14
2015-16: +2.15
by tarrazu
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Largest Errors vs. Average Entry (all teams about +/-7 or more): Over-Estimated: HOU: Harden/CP3 missed games early, lost Ast. Coach Bzdelik (initially), Ennis/Melo downgrade, teams adjusting to their switching scheme? WAS: Internal turmoil, Porter missed games, not a lot of depth, Wall/Morris have ...
by tarrazu
Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: On Nba.com lost the play-type stats
Replies: 6
Views: 7754

Re: On Nba.com lost the play-type stats

so they took away all of the Synergy play type data?
by tarrazu
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

When were these projections created? Any documentation of that date? Reason for posting 2 weeks late? I'd consider based on these answers. has Houston at 58, so it checks out! but this posted/timestamped here, so should be fine to add unless someone has a reasonable objection: https://twitter.com/k...