APBRmetrics

These do a good job.
IIRC their prior, last season, essentially mirrored the betting market:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/

*Edit -Didn't realize teamrankings was used as part of guru aggregate.

Thought it would be interesting, but nothing to take away from that. Threw a bunch of variables to see what stuck. Needed some more feature engineering or more thoughtful variable design. Ultimately showed the lasso model best predicted RAPM, with the net rating coefficient explaining about 2/3 of t...

Because they essentially start with the Vegas lines, these projections do a nice job with limited games played:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/

FWIW Team Rankings looks like they took a "Vegas line" and removed the juice in a way to get to 1230 totals win. Should be a good benchmark entry.

Conf Team Wins E ATL 41.9 E BKN 39.6 E BOS 54.7 E CHA 31.2 E CHI 37.2 E CLE 49.4 E DET 27.6 E IND 37.2 E MIA 43.9 E MIL 47.7 E NYK 47.4 E ORL 36.8 E PHI 48.3 E TOR 39.9 E WAS 28.3 W DAL 41.3 W DEN 50.6 W GSW 46.1 W HOU 31.1 W LAC 41.2 W LAL 43.5 W MEM 46.4 W MIN 45.7 W NOP 44.7 W OKC 43.9 W PHX 48....

I got 3 wins, 16-17, 18-19, 21-22. Not sure how that corresponds to those percentiles. You can be in rare company with me Crow.

v-zero wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 6:57 pm I described the Pelton predictions after they were initially posted on page one as 'fascinatingly conservative'. It certainly seems that 'presciently conservative' would have been a better phrase.

That's probably been a fair criticism most seasons and will also look better early in the season.

Not sure what we use for projected wins but think TR does a good job for their season long win numbers:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/

Conf Team Wins E ATL 47.6 E BKN 46.5 E BOS 56.8 E CHA 31.7 E CHI 37.5 E CLE 48.1 E DET 23.8 E IND 28.3 E MIA 50.0 E MIL 50.0 E NYK 41.8 E ORL 28.0 E PHI 54.2 E TOR 49.6 E WAS 32.8 W DAL 46.6 W DEN 48.8 W GSW 49.9 W HOU 23.3 W LAC 48.9 W LAL 36.9 W MEM 48.4 W MIN 50.4 W NOP 47.9 W OKC 23.7 W PHX 51....

Need to consider a team's actual Win Pct % as well, although net rating is still the main driver. I'd imagine Chris Paul's teams have often been "lucky" relative to their net rating.

seems like your best update of the season

East ATL 49.6 East BKN 52.0 East BOS 45.3 East CHA 31.7 East CHI 43.5 East CLE 25.4 East DET 27.7 East IND 40.8 East MIA 43.5 East MIL 57.6 East NYK 43.9 East ORL 23.2 East PHI 54.2 East TOR 42.2 East WAS 36.2 West DAL 51.4 West DEN 47.1 West GSW 44.5 West HOU 22.8 West LAC 44.7 West LAL 41.6 West ...

DSMok1 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:35 pm Conversely, BPI's projections look under regressed--much wider spread than any others I've seen.

I'll predict BPI is among the bottom 10% entries.

just a bunch of prawns Conf Team Wins East MIL 47.5 East MIA 43.5 East PHI 43.5 East BOS 42 East BKN 41.5 East TOR 41.5 East IND 38.5 East ATL 33 East WAS 31.5 East ORL 31 East CHI 27.5 East CHA 23.5 East NYK 22.5 East CLE 22.5 East DET 22 West LAL 48 West LAC 46.5 West DAL 43.5 West DEN 42 West UTA...

Are there new coefficients for BPM 2.0 when splitting in into its offense and defense components? I went through this thread quickly, but didn't see anything?