APBRmetrics

Been wondering for a while if PT-PM stats are available to view anywhere (specifically from the last few seasons and ideally the current season)? Or would I need to calculate it manually myself? If so, any advice on where to start? Also would be interested in any other less common APM stats like AuPM.

I'll have to refresh my knowledge of PIE but my memory is that it is weak sauce, worse than the other better known weak box score metrics. Yep, weak. PIE may be an improvement over "NBA efficiency" but that was one the simplest, weakest metrics out there for evaluating players. Correlatio...

Has anyone done any analysis of NBA's PIE rating (available on the official NBA stats site)? A popular handicap site "sportsmodelanalytics.com" uses PIE as a core of their handicapping and they've got a pretty good track record (though they handicap individual games rather than make win to...

Cool compilation and reviews. But Dowsett is oddly dismissive of 82games.com; is he unaware of the history behind it? What is the history behind it? Mostly, I think win % added is a trivia stat. It doesn't really matter whether that 3-pointer gets hit in the first minute or the 47th I've been think...

Site is automatically playing two videos and I can't find the second one to pause it. Really great article though. Some incredible resources I wasn't aware of. I really like Inpredictable. What do you guys think about the Win % added metric? Seems really interesting, just very limited. I kind of lik...

As others have pointed out, some of the results are beyond ridiculous so it'd be interesting to see more info on this "Values Shares" metric.

Okay. But splitting between Options 3 and 4 as written would be pretty hard. The terminology is different. 70% of players within plus or minus 2 (or 2.5) gets real close to the 5 bin split with qualitative labels if the middle bin is centered on zero. Perhaps I could have had 6-7 options. I am some...

I think it's better than "I think RPM can do a good job sorting most players into maybe 5 groups (great, vg, avg, below avg, awful)" but not as accurate as the next option up.

Well the market for this bet has been open for quite a while now (probably even before the season started). Most, if not all, of the odds movement at sportsbooks on this wager has likely been driven by money wagered by public/recreational gamblers. That betting activity is what can end up shading t...

The size of the market dictates the efficiency of the lines, since the larger markets with the highest maximum bets attract the most action from professional bettors and syndicates, whose large bets drive the lines towards the true odds (once you strip out the vig) and are enough to outweigh the la...

What's interesting though is that Westbrook is still an overwhelming favorite in Vegas.
Kinda shocked by that. What do they know that we don't? It looks like basketball-reference's algorithm might just be way off.

Do you post these anywhere else public or have a Google Sheets or anything? Been following this, big fan of the stat and would like to check it more regularly.

I expect one of the big changes in 5 years is rebounders rated in a very different, more complex way. Raw rebounds per game is no better than raw points per game. Spacing will also be quantified Well REB% is a much more useful stat to look at than raw RPG, but yeah tracking could bring loads of new...

How is the NBA.com PIE rating? Also, Crow, could I see the results of your blend (and DRE, whatever that is)? Thanks! One last question. What statistic is most likely to produce a ranking that would agree with the "common sense" opinion of the average basketball fan (as opposed to some adv...

The best metric at evaluating player value should be the one that out-of-sample prediction accuracy at 100% roster turnover rate is better than others. And that's PER (not even empirical) atm as far as public metrics go. However, player tracking metrics are not tested for large turnover rates since...