Search found 43 matches
- Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:43 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025-26 team win projection contest
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2953
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
okay, I use the B-Ref abbreviations, but I spelled out the whole team name and hope I remove the confusion we had last year on CHI/Charlotte. I followed my math, making BOS, MEM, IND higher than the consensus, and low on DET, ORL, NYK. Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 69 Houston Rockets HOU 58 Cleveland Ca...
- Thu Oct 16, 2025 2:25 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025-26 team win projection contest
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2953
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Kevin Pelton's minutes projection for the season. I did use them last year, saved time if nothing else.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0
- Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:34 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025-26 team win projection contest
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2953
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Look at your ages - 24, 26, and 28. Most aging curves will have players improving during this whole time period. The teams full of 24 year olds have 3 year guys who may not last longer in the league. The 28 year old teams are (usually) ones with proven players, they aren't going to give too many min...
- Thu Oct 09, 2025 2:30 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025-26 team win projection contest
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2953
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
I plan to enter as well, so I will track it here if there is no "Official" contest
- Tue Jun 10, 2025 5:23 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
- Replies: 23
- Views: 34238
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
I don't think they even do per-100-possessions by per-possession. A player moving from a high-paced team to a low-paced team, for example, does not show a season (or 2-season) total per100 based on his estimated possessions with each team, but rather to his minutes in each place. BPM (and eWins) ar...
- Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:51 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2024-25 team win projection contest
- Replies: 257
- Views: 348936
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
A very strange thing happened. In mid Jan. I opened my Excel file to update, and it had reverted to a version saved sometime in Nov. This after updating (and saving) almost every day in the meantime. I searched all thru my computer for another version of the file but never found one. So I blame mic...
- Wed Apr 16, 2025 8:56 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2024-25 team win projection contest
- Replies: 257
- Views: 348936
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
FINAL . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 dtka 7.50 9.7 .46 emin 8.47 10.9 .37 TmTj 7.63 10.0 .44 eExp 8.48 10.7 .42 avgA 7.82 10.1 .41 WShr 8.49 10.3 .39 medi 7.87 11.1 .37 24pr 8.51 10.8 .33 DQin 7.93 10.3 .42 KPel 8.52 10.0 .58 bpmW 8.14 10.0 .43 24py 8.66 11.7 .33 Crow 8.33 10.6 .41 bmgm 9.13...
- Mon Apr 14, 2025 3:01 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2024-25 team win projection contest
- Replies: 257
- Views: 348936
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Who / how many regressed as a separate step? Based on guess or formal analysis? By a standard amount or informed by team specific experience relative to estimated strength? Any other adjustments people want to share / show-off / ask about / discuss? Anybody include coach and / or front office as se...
- Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:14 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Poll: Your all-time greatest players
- Replies: 46
- Views: 13252
Re: Poll: Your all-time greatest players
Striking to me is that Kareem seems to be the only player with a top-250 WS/48 season both before and after the 1973-74 break, aka pre- and post-BPM. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_per_48_season.html https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/bpm_season.html These 2 lists of 250 ...
- Mon Mar 10, 2025 9:14 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025 Rookies
- Replies: 51
- Views: 15378
Re: 2025 Rookies
Relatedly, I am pretty sure that replacement level is quite a bit lower than I previously thought. -2 is what was used for VORP, but more recently additional research has shown to me that is quite a bit too high. -3 is probably about right, perhaps even -3.5. This is because better statistics are s...
- Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:10 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 2025 Rookies
- Replies: 51
- Views: 15378
Re: 2025 Rookies
OK, just curious. If a team BPM is -2.6, and a -2.0 player enters the lineup, does he have a positive impact? Right, the vast majority of NBA players are below the average NBA impact. It's not a bell curve, it's a strongly skewed distribution with relatively few players with very strong positive im...
- Tue Mar 04, 2025 4:15 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: '24-25 commentary
- Replies: 136
- Views: 88603
Re: '24-25 commentary
With closeness of 2-5 and 6 to 9 or 10 in west, almost any matchup are possible. Matchup manipulation hard to do now but might play a factor later. So if 2-5 is one group set with 4 teams and 6-10 a second set with 5 teams, then every team will want to finish as high as possible. 6-10 is obvious wi...
- Mon Feb 24, 2025 2:44 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
- Replies: 13
- Views: 4195
Re: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
Lname Fname Ht Team Type 0 Trials great. :) that was what I was in need of. can you provide the same info (players names) for 1968 trials? for 1968 trials I still miss about 10 to 15 players names. This is from a roster just before the Trials; it's possible a couple of guys didn't play - there were...
- Sun Feb 23, 2025 1:40 am
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
- Replies: 13
- Views: 4195
Re: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
The players were split into 8 Teams, each given a color. I have one color photo for the 8 trials teams. so I can create the jerseys for NBA2K13 game. but do you know which players played together in one team? need player names. https://www.expressnews.com/guidetosa/article/Former-coaches-teammates-...
- Thu Feb 20, 2025 11:36 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
- Replies: 13
- Views: 4195
Re: 1972 Basketball Olympic Trials
They played 5 exhibition games, beating various teams of NBA and ABA players - the first against former Olympians. that's what I need. where did they play the 5 exhibition games (location?), which ABA/NBA players played? I have where they played, the rosters are probably shaky as there are just box...