Search found 52 matches

by nrestifo
Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 171504

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Here are mine: I retweeked them a little today from the projections posted in my recent Nylon Calc article to account for the Snell/MCW trade and to give less weight to older games in my my modeling approach. Almost no difference, which makes total sense to me. My projections for the 2016-2017 NBA s...
by nrestifo
Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 171504

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Are we establishing a due date for win projections being posted here? Working on mine now.
by nrestifo
Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball
Replies: 6
Views: 5529

Re: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball

Ill be there Thursday, and would like to shoot my team out of wins on Sunday as well, if possible.

Thanks for setting everything up.
by nrestifo
Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 267355

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Here's mine. Explained briefly here : http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/27/2016-neural-network-win-projections/ Team Wins GSW 60 LAC 59 SAS 59 HOU 57 CLE 56 MEM 52 TOR 52 OKC 50 CHI 49 ATL 48 BOS 46 NOP 46 UTA 43 WAS 42 SAC 41 DAL 39 PHO 39 MIA 38 POR 38 IND 36 MIL 34 DEN 31 NYK 31 DET 30 ORL 29 BRK ...
by nrestifo
Mon Jun 08, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Yes, a continued thanks to everyone for their work. Thanks to Amp for getting everything together and Jesse and Viraj for their awesome tool on tothemean.com as well.
by nrestifo
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

So here's what Z scores would like, if anyone wants to take a look.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =529517843
by nrestifo
Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

I'm noticing Jesse gave draft models their names. I dont really have a name for mine. Should I make one? Any suggestions?
by nrestifo
Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Sorry I was MIA yesterday. I was outside in the stupid sun. Consequently, I wanted to ask the people on here if they mind if I edit parts of their blurb. if you don't want me to shorten your stuff, I will leave it as is (PM if you don't want to post it publicly). Feel absolutely free to edit mine if...
by nrestifo
Sat Jun 06, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

I don't have the time to do them myself, but if someone wanted to create Z Score rankings, I think be happy to see how they look (and obviously be very appreciative). The biggest asset of doing this is that if we had Z-score ratings, we could then have all of the international prospects fitted into...
by nrestifo
Sat Jun 06, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

BTW... regarding the issue of how to standardize the models, I think rank order is going to be the most intuitive for folks to read. Yes it has problems, but it really shouldn't pervert the outcomes much at all. If we post z-score standardized numbers, people might also interpret that as positive-n...
by nrestifo
Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Yes, min-max normalization stabilizes variance, rather than make it equal, which is what z-score does. A 0-100 scale, however, is more interpretable, which is why min-max is often used. Z score will give results like 4.17, 0.56, -1.29. Z score is (xval-mean(x))/stdev(x) where xval is the raw value, ...
by nrestifo
Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Haha I just meant how other models are evaulating Mario Hezonja, but I was too lazy to spell out his name.
by nrestifo
Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

So here's my followup writeup. Let me know if this is on point. If not I'll be happy to change it. And if anyone else along the pipeline wants to change it, that's totally fine with me as well. Whatever's easiest for everyone. Since my models includes high school ranking while several other models d...
by nrestifo
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Along with my updated board I would also like to point you to a new tool we have at tothemean.com which allows you to compare these analytic draft models in a better way than a shared google doc. We also allow you to compare with some more well known projections. We have already added the draft boa...
by nrestifo
Thu May 28, 2015 3:30 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 93496

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

This Monday? That should work fine for me at least. I'd love to contribute to the followup articles revealing more methodology/commentary/etc as long as I get enough heads up and can dedicate enough time. With a real job taking up my week days it is hard for me to promise anything unless I have at l...