Search found 127 matches

by JoshEngleman
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 114119

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Here goes nothing. Small adjustment today. Dropped Miami by 1 win, increase Boston by 1 win. Just saw the McGruder news. CLE 52 TOR 49 WAS 45 CHA 44 MIA 42 BOS 42 MIL 40 DET 36 PHI 36 NYK 34 IND 33 ORL 33 BRK 30 ATL 28 CHI 26 GSW 65 HOU 57 OKC 53 SAS 51 MIN 51 LAC 49 UTA 45 DEN 44 NOP 43 MEM 38 POR ...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 114119

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

I took the current Pinnacle line for each team, converted it to what the line would be if the juice on both sides was equal, and then adjusted each team down by an equal amount so it summed to 1230. For instance, the Boston line is 55.5 with under at -153 and over at +131. That's roughly equivalent...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 24773

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

Since at least the acquisition of Kevin Garnett, I might succinctly describe their front office philosophy as "plus-minus and patience", and this has served them very, very well. I had the same impression. Then it seemed to go all to out the window when they let Amir walk Also somewhat of note: Bro...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

Well, this BOS/CLE trade spits in the face of any discussion about surplus value for contracts.
by JoshEngleman
Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

Wouldn't the simplest way to calculate trade value be (estimated surplus value over contract per year) * (years remaining on contract)? In theory, yes, but it doesn't really work for the NBA. I mention an example a bit earlier in the thread, but Jae Crowder is the poster child for this. He's probab...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

How did you calculate your talent metric if you don't mind my asking? Don't mind at all. It's actually very basic. I did a 50/50 blend of WS and BPM, since that was the easiest to grab from Basketball Reference. Then, I used the past 3 years of data, weighted by minutes and recency, to get a rate f...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

I used the DO method with a few tweaks and wanted to share what I have so far. First, instead of units Credits/AV, I'm using my Talent metric converted to wins. I probably should use a combination of both, as someone like Andrew Wiggins will grade out worse for me, but in theory, he would be much cl...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

A couple of thoughts here: First of all, the wins measure has to be relatively accurate, and the projection should deal with aging well. In this particular list, Porzingis is listed as the lesser player versus Crowder, and is projected to remain so. Do we agree with that? Does Porzingis have some p...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Re: Trade Value

I guess I should have been more specific in my original post, but I like a lot of the replies here. My original thought was more along the lines of Bill Simmons' old trade value columns. Boiling the combination of age, talent and contract down into one ranking. In a generic trade setting, we would b...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 18651

Trade Value

I've been thinking about putting a trade value calculator together for a while, so I thought this would be a good place to bring it up. For this exercise, ignore the specific talent ratings for players. Just try to look at this snippet in a vacuum. In baseball, it's pretty easy to manage trade value...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 27852

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

The following table is update with transactions through yesterday. I also made tweaks to rookie projections and second round guys since my last post. For the delta column, I've added an additional win to each team in the East and took one from each team in the West, to better account for schedule di...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 27852

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Updated my post to reflect win total lines rather than championship odds. Biggest discrepancies between Vegas lines and Josh's projections include: -Boston and Utah. Oddsmakers (or at least one oddsmaker) seem to be treating Gordon Hayward as a bona-fide superstar. Does that theory hold any water? ...
by JoshEngleman
Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 27852

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

How are those using BPM/RPM blends (or just RPM or just BPM) projecting rookie production? I did a regression based on draft slot and Y1 performance. It shakes out so that the #1 pick in Y1 is roughly league average, with a sliding scale all the way to .025 at the end of the first round. I give all...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 27852

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Here's where I stand right now in raw projections. I made a small tweak to force 1230 wins for right now, since there isn't a schedule to sim. "Min?" is the number of minutes that haven't been allocated to a specific player. *I just used the data below to sim the season 5000 times, using last year's...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 27852

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

A few changes, most noticeably Rockets/Celtics slinking ahead of the Spurs in championship odds. The West playoff race remains ridiculously competitive with all but three teams at 150/1 or better odds, in spite of the brutal playoff path that faces any lower seed. Could be 50+ wins to make the play...