APBRmetrics

Thanks for the link guys, this is a good tutorial.

Currently we are focusing on team level and not individual players. We hope later to model lineups, players, etc., but are not at that point yet.

bchaikin wrote: what's a start state? and who does Markov play for?...

Here's the raw data: team_name game_date spread spread_mov Orlando 10/28/14 9 -8 New Orleans 10/28/14 -9 8 Dallas 10/28/14 3.5 2.5 San Antonio 10/28/14 -3.5 -2.5 L.A. Lakers 10/28/14 7 -11 Houston 10/28/14 -7 11 Milwaukee 10/29/14 8 8 Charlotte 10/29/14 -8 -8 Philadelphia 10/29/14 7.5 -4.5 Indiana 1...

Ahh, yeah, that would be a lot more useful.

Have the data, will try to take a look and post over the weekend.

I know % covers gets tracked publicly by team and ATS number but does any one have the distribution of how much the result varies from ATS and will ink to it or share? I know a cover is a cover and vice versa but wondered about by how much. Might help with strategy. This what you mean? Data below i...

This is really neat. I think game simulation is really interesting, because, with specific enough info about the teams, you should theoretically be able to better predict interactivity effects, which is better for a game like basketball than assuming every +10 MOV team will play every +5 MOV team e...

Have you seen and compared your findings to Ken Shirley's, referenced here http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/APBRmetrics_Old/viewtopic.php@t=1279&start=30.html Here is a direct link to the poster http://www.nessis.org/nessis07/Kenny_Shirley.pdf I have seen the poster but have not seen that threa...

Our developer and data guru is going to jump on here shortly and can offer answers to any technical questions.

I wonder how many teams use a by start state possession level Markov chain model in game planning for and against specific teams. I wonder how many use it specifically to optimize lineups for defense to offense and offense to defense transitions. I wonder how many use it for roster construction. I ...

kohanz wrote:
Ah. Do you work-around the last name issue, or does it not matter for your purposes?

We do have a workaround. If you want more detail, PM me.

Straight from NBA.com

kohanz wrote:Very interesting project. I will definitely follow closely and am tempted to throw my hat in for developer support, but not sure if I have the time for it. What's your tech-stack looking like?

Thanks for the interest. DB is MySQL, JSON parser is done in PHP.

Data is in the DB, and can be exported in pretty much any format desired. We typically use CSV. As far as sharing goes, we feel that the gains from collaboration are greater than the gains of "protecting IP" at this point. Main applications of the simulations will be for sports betting, bu...

Thanks Crow!

Appreciate all your time and hard work on this site and on twitter, your links are always useful and informative.