APBRmetrics

Getting Popovich also increases your chances of keeping your free agents, perhaps even at below market costs.

Also, calling the Spurs a favorite over the 2001 Lakers is just not accurate.

Isn't one of the biggest issues with making a sustainable living from gambling simply having the infrastructure to place big enough bets to make it worth it? You can bet $10k a game on game spreads, on game day at a couple of major books pretty easily. If the spread moves, you can hit it again for ...

I don't think I've ever been called a "Famous Stathead" before. :shock: You're on my Mount Rushmore of NBA statheads. :D If you think one person working in isolation could beat vegas but not the collective of APBR working together, I think you vastly underestimate the wisdom of crowds. I ...

ICYMI, I wrote something about gambling on the NBA.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/fre ... l-betting/

I would bet the math says that it would make sense to foul DeAndre Jordan so that you have an opportunity to score. 1) I would suspect OREB% on missed FTs is inversely proportional to how good the FT shooter is, even more so controlling for that poor FT shooters are typically good rebounders. 2) Gi...

one thing i don't get is how you get 15-15 for the espn summer forecast? if espn had 56 for the clippers and the closing line is also 56, shouldn't you consider it as no bet? You're totally right - should be 14-12 on all plays vs the close, 11-1 with 1 game diff, 9-4 with 2 game diff, 4-3 with 3 ga...

Yeah - that's basically what I mean - on your biggest deviations, how many did you beat the line? I'm also not sure if you guys are using the opener or the close - these are what I have for the open and close at the LVH, which I think is the largest limit for season win totals. Not quite fair to com...

Can the compiler of this data sort by wins on top 5/10 plays rather than RMSE? For ex., if i projected ATL to win 82 games, I'd have beaten Vegas, despite having a much higher RMSE than someone who projected 39.5. Thanks.

pjdrobnjak wrote:do you have any idea where fakepuppy sources its lines from? almost no one on it seems to win under 55% (probably b/c of moneylines). thx for introducing me to the website btw

I was curious about this too, and emailed them - they said Pinnacle.

Age curves in general don't account for dropping out of sample, which is a huge problem that there's no real solution to. Using any 1# metric to value performance is unideal due to context, but even worse would be to use a cumulative metric, as that's hugely dependent on playing time. Weighted OBA s...

Win %, as a metric, is only useful if you're betting at roughly the same vig and roughly the same unit size. ROI is much better metric to be thinking about.

Thanks. Fake betting ATS and money line, I am aiming to keep above 65% win. I am for last 19 days but that slicing avoids a bad week. Overall it is basically 3 good weeks and 2 1/2 bad. Will see what month 2 brings. If you start with $1000 and can hit at 65% at 600 games a year, paying -110 vig, an...

Offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding are so different that lumping them together isn't all that useful - the biggest determinant of rebounding is the player's position when the shot goes up, and the ability to control that on offense is much greater than it is on defense.

Well, Wiggins being picked #1 or McDermott being picked #11 or Lavine being picked #13 or Stauskas being picked #8 doesn't matter to me - these picks my model sees the biggest possibilities of busts relative to pick position. I like Layne Vashro's HUMBLE projections that factor in the draft consens...

Well, since I do tie playing time & production together - it's really only the outliers (bad production huge minutes or good production low minutes) that seem to have their HnI (& WAR/48) change that much. Most of the guys in the NBA see playing time that correlates at least somewhat to pro...