Search found 262 matches

by ampersand5
Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Paradox of Depth
Replies: 3
Views: 5570

The Paradox of Depth

The Paradox of Depth is that in the NBA playoffs, the more depth a team has, the more likely the team is to materially suffer from an injury. For a team dependant on superstars and lacking depth, the likelihood of being materially effected by an injury is a product of how likely it is for their 2-3 ...
by ampersand5
Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 107139

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

Why even have an RPM if Saric (legitimately 1st or 2nd in upcoming ROY voting) is "ranked" so low? Re-name it UPM. How about a requirement that any inventor of a statistical ranking system has to have seen at least one NBA game before his/her system enters the public domain? Many of the names above...
by ampersand5
Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 107139

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

by ampersand5
Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:42 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 172276

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

PTPM + RPM + BPM blend
GSW 69
Cle 56
Sas 56
Tor 52
Lac 51
Bos 50
Uta 48
Hou 47
Cha 45
Okc 45
Por 45
Atl 41
Det 41
Dal 40
Ind 40
Was 40
Chi 39
Mem 38
Den 37
Min 37
NYK 37
Nop 36
Orl 36
Mia 35
Mil 34
Sac 34
Phi 28
Brk 25
Phx 25
Lal 23
by ampersand5
Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 172276

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Thanks for the response Nate, and I apolagize if I wasn't sufficiently clear. I'll try and rephrase my question in a simpler way. My model says team A has a 33% chance of beating team B. However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts. Lets say that Joe Smith comes up to me and says "Hey Dan...
by ampersand5
Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 172276

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

I have a conceptual question that I'm hoping someone can address. How do we incorporate uncertainty of our model, into our model. For example, if we flip a coin - our model forecasts that it will come up heads 50% of the time. I believe in my models accuracy with a 99.99999999999999999% confidence i...
by ampersand5
Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can we tell if a team is playing well?
Replies: 14
Views: 9853

Re: Can we tell if a team is playing well?

Thinking about it a bit more, one could compare ftas received / given up to "expected" based on average ft rate for the sum of the values for the mix of play types run, like for the other factors. They get to quality of strategy (and movement). The prep before the "execution". Execution is a big pa...
by ampersand5
Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can we tell if a team is playing well?
Replies: 14
Views: 9853

Re: Can we tell if a team is playing well?

I've thought a little bit about this. If a team starts out the season, say, 10-0, can we look at box score stats to get insight into whether or not the team's "for real"? If the dominant factor in their wins was that their opponents shot a combined 14% from 3, it seems reasonable to think it might ...
by ampersand5
Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can we tell if a team is playing well?
Replies: 14
Views: 9853

Re: Can we tell if a team is playing well?

I played enough to recognize when I was in a funk, could hardly run without tripping, ball would bounce off my hands, etc. Other days, I could do just about anything just by thinking about it. Such days may be random, but the individual events are certainly not random. While I'm skeptical of the cl...
by ampersand5
Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:03 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can we tell if a team is playing well?
Replies: 14
Views: 9853

Can we tell if a team is playing well?

I recently wrote an article about tennis and randomness here that I think is also applicable to basketball - http://danfrank.ca/meditation-on-tennis/ My thesis is that many sporting outcomes (ie if a FT goes in, if a pass goes on target, possibly even if a team wins a game) are based on probabilisti...
by ampersand5
Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:08 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A New Python Library To Get PlayByPlay Data, Useful for APM
Replies: 9
Views: 9674

Re: A New Python Library To Get PlayByPlay Data, Useful for

Thank you for your contribution!
I'm not doing any RAPM stuff now, but this would have made my life much easier at many points. I hope you get more feedback on this, but I can say, despite what gets posted, tons of people will use this resource and get influenced (and more involved) through your work.
by ampersand5
Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba
Replies: 15
Views: 14932

Re: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba

"The NBA = the interest of 30 team owners, not the cumulative NBA entity." I think teams earn about as much from collectively generated league / partnership revenues now as local team revenues produced still in partnership and over time I imagine the league level collected revenues will be a larger...
by ampersand5
Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba
Replies: 15
Views: 14932

Re: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba

There probably hasn't been a lot of GM price variation but the information is scant. It might be increasing. And relative lack of variation doesn't prove relative manager equality. GMs, typically middle aged and older, maybe value stability, having power and being surrounded my their staff and play...
by ampersand5
Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:07 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba
Replies: 15
Views: 14932

Re: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba

Hopefully today's actions have woken up the NBA community to problems I described, and changes will be implemented when the CBA is renegotiated next summer. I likely will informally stop financially supporting the NBA until; my interest has also gone to near zero, but I'm sure it could be sparked ag...
by ampersand5
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba
Replies: 15
Views: 14932

Re: Article: Inequality-in-the-nba

Dan, I found the article interesting for what it was and you're probably correct that if one were to enact a single change to the status quo, blowing up max. contract restrictions would be the one most likely to lead to a more generally competitive NBA. This said, I think the discussion about inequ...