APBRmetrics

I've heard one reason RMSE is more popular than mean absolute error is because it is readily differentiable whereas functions involving absolute values are not. Optimization algorithms are often trying to minimize some error term, and some algorithms depend on the function being differentiable.

Prediction strategy and quality of metric test could overlap. But I think more want to focus on the latter than the former. It might be that 2 different tests would be better than one mixed motive contest. I agree that it's two different tests, but my question is the same for both tests. Assuming w...

In your example script, I don't know what the values after the players name are. Game by game prediction with opportunity for metric refinement is one kind of test, probably the cleanest but most of the previous talk was about doing many years all at once though there was argument about out of samp...

I think this is a great idea! This is exactly what I was suggesting in the prediction thread. Some thoughts: - If the testing framework is built well, it shouldn't matter how many entries there are. So why not allow any submissions, regardless of how their calculated? - Since the primary goal of thi...

Will there be a declared machine learning entrant in future? I think machine learning for these predictions may not be optimal because it's not getting the opportunity to continuously learn from data. If the predictions could be updated throughout the season, then a machine learning algorithm could...

And still, I suspect an error or several in your method. No aggregate stat should have a negative correlation with performance; and yet you find a -.178 relationship between PER and game results for 1991? See the BPM thread here for further explanations; and if you got your numbers from basketball-...

Hi everyone, a friend suggested I look into this forum to discuss basketball statistics. I recently started a basketball blog, and my last post was an attempt to backtest PER, WS, BPM, and VORP. Some other backtests I've seen compute each team's minute-weighted PER or WS or whatever metric, and then...