Search found 209 matches

by shadow
Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 11
Views: 4579

Re: 2019 playoffs

Playoff only RAPM for anyone who's interested. Obviously super small sample size alert applies.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
by shadow
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Congrats to tarrazu for nearly going wire to wire.

Thanks to Mike G for taking the time to provide updates throughout the season.

Looking forward to next season.
by shadow
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

No worries. I only just saw that the post implied I was linking to your data. Thanks for clearing it up.
by shadow
Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Saw Rd11490 had posted some multi-year RAPM data sets, so figured I'd run one for the sake of comparison. This is 2014-2018, as in the 2013-14 season through the 2017-18 season. It includes both regular season and playoffs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9...
by shadow
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Notes about RPM estimates
Replies: 13
Views: 9408

Re: Notes about RPM estimates

LMA defense has dropped off a lot this year, but how weak is the prior that he is now a -3? His box score prior must be pretty bad because I have his RAPM at only -0.81 as of 12/18. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2...
by shadow
Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

RAPM through games played on 11/18 for comparison:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
by shadow
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

No minutes threshold. Anyone who appeared in a game through 11/8 is included, but low minute players will hover around 0 since this is vanilla RAPM with no prior.
by shadow
Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Lowry is first in RAPM through games played on 11/8, which is the last time I ran it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true Edit: Lowry was first through 11/8, but now Durant is first ...
by shadow
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 186933

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Way too early 2018-19 vanilla RAPM:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Updated through games on 10/22. Will try to update this every couple weeks, but no guarantees on that.
by shadow
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Here's my entry: ATL 23.13 BOS 56.33 BRK 32.63 CHA 36.85 CHI 28.78 CLE 31.08 DAL 34.43 DEN 47.53 DET 38.82 GSW 60.68 HOU 55.38 IND 47.08 LAC 36.05 LAL 45.55 MEM 33.81 MIA 42.81 MIL 46.66 MIN 42.28 NOP 44.88 NYK 27.76 OKC 47.88 ORL 30.93 PHI 52.24 PHX 27.99 POR 41.80 SAC 25.43 SAS 41.88 TOR 55.31 UTA...
by shadow
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Analytics to Bet on Games
Replies: 2
Views: 4105

Re: Using Analytics to Bet on Games

From an ESPN article on Bob Voulgaris about NBA gambling: To help him build his model, Voulgaris required a specialist in the field, a mind trained in the codes of statistics, mathematics and computer science. He started the search in 2005. It took him two years and six individual tryouts -- most of...
by shadow
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Found my sheet from last year and ran the Pinnacle win totals through the formula to even out the juice and normalize the total wins to 1230 (Original lines sum to 1235.5 as of today). Here are the numbers I would suggest using for 'Vegas' when comparing results: Team Wins ATL 20.38 BOS 58.07 BRK 31...
by shadow
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

RyanRiot wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:10 pm
Did you ever go back and find this value?
Not yet. Will try to figure it out this week sometime and post the result.
by shadow
Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Doesn't sound like Booker will miss significant time. Maybe a week at most, which would only end up being 2 to 3 games.
by shadow
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 103730

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

I think I edited out that part shortly after posting because I couldn't quickly track down the formula I used last year to find the true projection with even juice. Basically, if the price on both sides of the wager aren't equal, then the value of the line doesn't represent the true projection for t...