Search found 224 matches

by bbstats
Wed May 15, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48488

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Friendly reminder to everyone reading the results of this model: feature coefficients do not exist in a vacuum. For example: if you had a regression of *just* turnovers vs RAPM, turnovers would be positive because it's correlated with other successful things (namely, being a high-usage passer). The ...
by bbstats
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48488

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Random aside - are per-100 stats in the scope of BPM 2.0?
by bbstats
Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48488

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

one good interaction that may or may not improve sample size is "turnovers vs expected" i.e. projected turnovers from stat line vs actual turnovers. that has a very good RSQ in general and to me seems pretty important

also (GamesStarted/GamesPlayed)^2 seems to be a good one
by bbstats
Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48488

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

2 half-baked ideas: 1) get even more interaction terms (i.e. estimate what proportion of baskets are assisted etc) 2) find mathematically sound way of capping / preventing outlier seasons from breaking the prediction for #2 you could theoretically just generate "possible stat lines" i.e. RWB's MVP s...
by bbstats
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins
Replies: 14
Views: 10280

Re: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins

Hi! This is literally all I care about these days (figuring out why and how some teams beat their Net Rating in terms of win%). Some thoughts: 1. Something is awry if Net Rating has a +.107 correlation. How is that possible? Should be removed from the equation really...just want to measure Net Ratin...
by bbstats
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 140075

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

While I appreciate the early love, the spreadsheet linking to my win projections is my *LIVE* win projections which is probably why I'm in first.

Here's my actual pre-season projections: https://twitter.com/bbstats/status/1052331590263742465
by bbstats
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 172442

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

RMSE is the standard and should remain unless voted on prior to the contest

*grumbles about prior 2nd place*
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Just ran my retrodiction and found the following fit on *Adjusted NetRating* (not wins):

0.573 x my BPM projection
0.375 x Jerry's Multiyear + Aging Curve RPM
0.0583 x Expected Teammate Usage
0.107 x Prior yr Usg% x TS%
-6.5


Definitely overfit, but very interesting.
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

FWIW, I averaged KP and BMonster's minutes projections for mine.

Long live average error!
by bbstats
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

My RPM predictions vs Vegas:
2014: 20-9-1
2015: I don't know but I won the Avg Error thing at "6" so "very good"
2016 (projected): 22-8-0
by bbstats
Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

haha - I just meant I missed the frequent colorful chart updates.

thanks for the wins update Mike!

EDIT: Though - this looks like average error. After winning the average error but "losing" the contest last year I'd like to see Squared error if possible - let's stick to it :)
by bbstats
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Yoooooooo caliban....
Where you at
by bbstats
Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings
Replies: 21
Views: 14843

Re: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings

Awesome! Question: Why only 22 players in the 1-player-Lasso, for example?
by bbstats
Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 269111

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

TY Portland TY Boston