Search found 11 matches

by GK5
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 249739

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Thanks for the additional info, Mike; you do a fantastic job moderating this contest and providing us all with interesting updates.
by GK5
Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 249739

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

avg abs err RMSE avg abs err RMSE 538_ 5.05 6.34 GK5. 5.33 7.04 RyRi 5.05 6.18 emin 5.33 6.38 sbs. 5.08 6.24 Nath 5.40 6.57 cali 5.10 6.31 Josh 5.57 6.74 sndi 5.17 6.08 Crow 5.58 6.79 kmed 5.18 6.48 gold 5.62 6.78 lnqi 5.21 6.33 ATCt 5.62 7.06 shad 5.24 6.64 Mike 5.71 6.89 vegas 5.26 6.52 knar 5.78...
by GK5
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 249739

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Good luck everyone! Team Decimal-W Wins GSW 62.98 63 SAS 58.10 58 HOU 55.14 55 CLE 51.40 52 DEN 49.94 50 LAC 49.20 49 MIN 49.13 49 TOR 48.00 48 BOS 47.95 48 OKC 46.81 47 WAS 45.20 45 CHA 44.98 45 UTA 44.94 45 NOP 43.30 43 MIA 42.91 43 MIL 42.51 43 POR 40.21 40 DET 36.89 37 MEM 36.81 37 DAL 36.24 36 ...
by GK5
Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 293360

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

6 best and 6 worst for me. I think I may have the largest difference between SMRE and RMSE as well.
by GK5
Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 177167

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

Why even have an RPM if Saric (legitimately 1st or 2nd in upcoming ROY voting) is "ranked" so low? Re-name it UPM. How about a requirement that any inventor of a statistical ranking system has to have seen at least one NBA game before his/her system enters the public domain? Many of the n...
by GK5
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 293360

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Glad to see I have moved from the basement in all three categories :D

Thanks for keeping this updated Mike!
by GK5
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with Regression Analysis
Replies: 3
Views: 5676

Re: Help with Regression Analysis

If you are trying to do a simple linear regression, then it is probably easier to just run it in R.

This may help. http://www.statmethods.net/stats/regression.html
by GK5
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimating Wins From a +/- Model
Replies: 5
Views: 7179

Re: Estimating Wins From a +/- Model

From looking at my data I've found Point differential to be closer to the 2.7 coefficient rather than the 2.55 depending on how far back you go. You mentioned having a minute weighted +/- number for each team. It might be more accurate to see the correlation between team minute weighted +/- and wins...
by GK5
Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 293360

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Thank you for taking the time to keep score!
by GK5
Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 293360

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Posted my projections on page 2, but wanted to add my decimals in too. GSW 72.93 73 SAS 53.40 53 CLE 52.45 52 TOR 52.31 52 UTA 51.25 51 LAC 48.51 49 BOS 48.07 48 OKC 47.68 48 HOU 45.30 45 POR 45.40 45 CHO 42.89 43 CHI 41.498 41 DET 39.81 40 MIN 39.69 40 DEN 38.77 39 IND 39.10 39 WAS 38.51 39 ATL 38....
by GK5
Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 293360

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

First entry after watching for a few years. Best of luck to all.

GSW 73
SAS 53
CLE 52
TOR 52
UTA 51
LAC 49
BOS 48
OKC 48
HOU 45
POR 45
CHA 43
CHI 41
DET 40
MIN 40
DEN 39
IND 39
WAS 39
ATL 38
DAL 38
SAC 38
MEM 37
ORL 37
MIA 36
NOP 35
NYK 31
PHO 31
MIL 30
PHI 29
BRK 28
LAL 25

Total 1230