Search found 240 matches

by jgoldstein34
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 140072

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

My final PIPM win projections for the year. Best of luck to everyone. I treated Butler as a free agent, replaced his minutes with an average backup wing. Feel the Butler fiasco will be a large source of error for all of us this year. ATL 27.36 BOS 55.04 BRK 32.54 CHO 40.59 CHI 29.85 CLE 33.62 DAL 33...
by jgoldstein34
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 140072

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

I'm aware it wasn't based off that, was just noting what I saw from a quick glance that stood out as main contributors. I think Carlisle will be fine, he's a good coach. Last year was intentional, they'll try for half the year and see how close they are. I think there are real scenarios where they g...
by jgoldstein34
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: player tracking data
Replies: 14
Views: 10723

Re: player tracking data

I know of a company trying to do it for Europe, but it's obviously a slow process to get off the ground. Probably a few years away from another approaching a robust data set.
by jgoldstein34
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 140072

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Seems the biggest difference between my projections and 538 for the Mavs is how they value Doncic at around replacement level (-2.2) while my model has him as a small positive (+0.4)
by jgoldstein34
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 22000

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Carter has some lateral quickness issues that make him a bit of a worse prospect than his statistical profile suggests, not really close to the level of passer Love is, though Carter is certainly above average at it.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: BPM and VORP
Replies: 30
Views: 20512

Re: BPM and VORP

Nash was a higher leverage and better passer than Stockton. Assist numbers are actually a horrible measure of creation. Stockton is an all-time PG, but Nash is one of the most underrated offensive players ever. I also love the irony of someone saying watch the games to see what I mean and all the re...
by jgoldstein34
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:36 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11170

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

Related, I do think Vegas has improved their line making over the past few years. Has anyone read anything on them adapting new techniques?
by jgoldstein34
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:12 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11170

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

It's a totally fair observation, did not mean to come off as dismissive or otherwise. Was just trying to help answer the question for the high end. Apologies if that ruffled feathers.
by jgoldstein34
Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11170

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

Why would I make up something for strangers on the internet? lmao model isn't built around those.
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11170

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

I do print money haha yes. 73% 2 years ago, 70% last. 68% this year, but based off analysis I expect it to regress up to ~69-70%.

But no, not really much I can talk about because of NDAs and agreements with partners.
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11170

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

What do you define as a simple model?

I get 71-73% depending on the year.
by jgoldstein34
Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138994

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Here's how my model has it after tonight's games:

Image
by jgoldstein34
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138994

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Update: we've all gotten a tiny bit better over the past few days.

Image
by jgoldstein34
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:13 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rookies of 2017-18
Replies: 31
Views: 28032

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

I projected him at -2.4 points per 100 possessions which is just around where he is (I have him at -1.7 so far, RPM as you said is -2.3). BPM is at -3.0. In my database, the average 19 year old PG has a PIPM of -1.75 so he's been near average for his age at least.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rookies of 2017-18
Replies: 31
Views: 28032

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

He rates out relatively better using PIPM or RPM. There's a decent number of other high drafted rookies below him.