Search found 20 matches

by RyanRiot
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 39
Views: 2092

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I'm not sure how position would be implemented reliably from the box score, height/weight or what? It is relatively easy to determine position strictly from the box score. No, height/weight would not be included. If you're comfortable with including a position variable, you can try including a posi...
by RyanRiot
Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 100608

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Phew, narrowly better than Vegas.
by RyanRiot
Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Lottery teams with best future?
Replies: 2
Views: 379

Re: Lottery teams with best future?

It's a tough question, because the answer might be the Knicks, despite the fact that potentially the only useful player currently on their roster going forward is Mitchell Robinson. But it's also eminently possible that in three months they'll have Kevin Durant, Zion Williamson, and Kyrie Irving, wh...
by RyanRiot
Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Best practices for SPM development?
Replies: 3
Views: 1497

Best practices for SPM development?

At a basic level, developing a SPM model just involves regressing some player stats against a RAPM sample, but what is the best way to do that? Is it: 1. Regress a multi-year player sample against a multi-year RAPM sample (i.e. Kevin Durant's 2010-2015 box score stats against Durant's 2010-2015 RAPM...
by RyanRiot
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Anyone have success bringing in Stats.NBA.com data to Google Sheets?
Replies: 1
Views: 2258

Anyone have success bringing in Stats.NBA.com data to Google Sheets?

I'm sure many of us use Google Sheets' ImportHTML function to automate pulling data from various sites, although it unfortunately doesn't work with Stats.NBA.com. I'm wondering if anyone has been able to find a good way to automatically pull in data from the site. Using the API, I'm able to get a JS...
by RyanRiot
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 182047

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

RPM is now out for this season
by RyanRiot
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opponent-adjusted pace?
Replies: 5
Views: 5440

Re: Opponent-adjusted pace?

I have an idea for a straightforward implementation of this based on Sports-Reference's Simple Rating System, but I can't seem to get it to calculate correctly.
by RyanRiot
Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opponent-adjusted pace?
Replies: 5
Views: 5440

Opponent-adjusted pace?

Are there any publicly available opponent-adjusted pace/tempo stats available for the NBA? Everywhere I've looked seems to only have raw pace numbers. I know for NCAA Kenpom has AdjT, but I haven't found anything similar for the NBA.
by RyanRiot
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 Individual RPM Projections
Replies: 8
Views: 7615

Re: 2018-19 Individual RPM Projections

This article by Ben Falk takes a nice look at why metrics rate Jokic so highly on defense. It's behind a paywall, but the main points are that he doesn't give up offensive rebounds, he doesn't foul, and he doesn't give up shots in the paint.
by RyanRiot
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 100608

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Didn't make any changes to my models from last year, season snuck up on me. Also wish this Butler trade was sorted out, but here goes: GSW 62 HOU 56.4 TOR 55.9 BOS 54.5 PHI 52.5 UTA 51.3 OKC 49.7 DEN 48.8 MIL 46 MIN 45.7 WAS 45.6 LAL 45.3 IND 44.9 NOH 44.8 MIA 41 SAS 40.9 POR 40.1 DET 39.2 CHA 37 LA...
by RyanRiot
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 10913

Re: Player Box Score Projections

They finally released their 2018-2019 projections, so I put them together with Pelton's minutes projections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... eg/pubhtml
by RyanRiot
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 150
Views: 100608

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

I figured out roughly how many cents a win was worth last year so that I could convert the Pinnacle lines to the true 50/50 midpoint. I'll have to track that down or figure it out again. For evaluating how accurate the projections are from Pinnacle (or just about any sportsbook since most of them j...
by RyanRiot
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 10913

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Jacob Goldstein released PIPM projections earlier in summer, if I recall correctly. Might have an update later. See his twitter / check his archive site. Andrew Johnson has a PIPM / RPM blend at his twitter CountingBaskets and Nylon Calculus. Another set at SteadyLosing twitter, I think. Thanks for...
by RyanRiot
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 10913

Player Box Score Projections

Hey everyone, I know we have the team win projection contest, and a lot of what goes into that is player value projections, but I was wondering what sources of player box score stats are publicly available. So far, I've found four: ESPN CBS NumberFire Hashtag Basketball Does anyone know of any others?
by RyanRiot
Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 113160

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Obviously a great return to form for 538's preseason predictions, but how do we feel about their playoff predictions? Some of the probabilities they're giving look a little funky, probably due to underrating teams lile the Warriors and Cavs who've lost a bunch of regular season games to bad teams be...