APBRmetrics

Wow! I was not expecting to win after the way things looked last week...what a pleasant surprise. Yes, I use a predictive version of CraftedPM which is basically just a players CraftedPM from the prior season with an age adjustment. Two wins in three years is a nice little resume builder.

include them all! the more, the merrier, imo. We could still. give TMTJ the contest victory while including the others in a separate table?

It is my opinion that TmTj should be banned from the competition. Who let them in here anyways?!?

Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad better Last year, of 18 entries, DARKO finished 12th and LEBRON 17th. They were 2.85 and 3.18, respectively, from the lead at the end. Why should we think they do much better this time around? Two years ago I w...

This is completely outside of my level of expertise, but here's what Chat GPT 4o has to say: This is a great question, and it's worth questioning why RMSE (e = 2) is the default error metric in so many contests. RMSE vs. MAE RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error, e = 2): Penalizes larger errors more heavily...

"So the Dubs at 55% for the season are expected to win 70% the rest of the way? Is there a recency factor affecting their season record? Any reason to not include a decimal place in the forecast? Is it fair that Den, Uta, Chi, and Det get 83 games?" The projections are built mostly from t...

Let's Go! Getting closer and closer to 1st place. I'd love to win for the 2nd time in 3 years. Relatedly, I am currently building a season projection tool, similar to how 538 used to do it. It seems like there's an opening there since their site was shuttered. The projections are based on Crafted+-,...

Mike, In year's past you have used projections from various metrics in the contest, such as Kevin Pelton, LEBRON, RAPTOR, NumberFIRE, etc. I used these to compare my projections which use CraftedNBA to other metrics. Any chance you will be adding any of these to the contest this year? Also, just for...

OK, I have finally gotten my copy/paste skills down. Here are the final, correct, CraftedNBA Projections Team Record Boston Celtics 60 Milwaukee Bucks 50 Toronto Raptors 30 Phoenix Suns 49 Philadelphia 76ers 47 Golden State Warriors 45 Miami Heat 43 Los Angeles Clippers 40 Memphis Grizzlies 43 Minne...

Thanks for the heads up Crow. I had copied from the wrong column. Here ya go! Team Record losses Boston Celtics 59 23 Oklahoma City Thunder 50 32 Cleveland Cavaliers 30 52 Denver Nuggets 49 33 Minnesota Timberwolves 48 34 New York Knicks 45 37 Milwaukee Bucks 43 39 Phoenix Suns 41 41 Philadelphia 76...

I'm back! As usual, I have my projections posted on the site: https://craftednba.com/projections They are behind a paywall for now, so I will share here as well: Team Record losses Boston Celtics 59 23 Oklahoma City Thunder 54 28 Cleveland Cavaliers 52 30 Denver Nuggets 51 31 Minnesota Timberwolves ...

Does anyone know of a site calculating RAPM similar to the way that Ryan Davis was doing on NBAShotCharts? I was a huge fan of his Rebounding and Turnover RAPM.

Team Boston | 56-26 Milwaukee | 50-32 Toronto | 42-40 Phoenix | 49-33 Philadelphia | 46-36 Golden State | 48-34 Miami | 42-40 LA Clippers | 42-40 Memphis | 47-35 Minnesota | 47-35 Denver | 48-34 Orlando | 34-48 Dallas | 44-38 Cleveland | 50-32 New York | 47-35 Utah | 37-45 New Orleans | 44-38 Oklaho...

I will be back to defend my title and hope to finish up my projections in the next 24 hours. I don't think they will make it to the site (Craftednba.com) before the season tips off, so i will post them here as soon as they are available.

#1 baby. LFG.