Search found 2 matches

by vraja
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11054

Re: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

Thanks for the responses. Something like ThePredictionTracker is what I was looking for. By simple model, I mean that I'm using very standard traditional metrics as well as some advanced metrics (all at the team level) passed into a regression model. I am very curious about your 71-73% performance. ...
by vraja
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy
Replies: 12
Views: 11054

FiveThirtyEight win/loss prediction accuracy

I'm just curious what the current state of the art is for game win/loss prediction? I was looking at FiveThirtyEight's 2016-17 season game predictions, and found their accuracy to be around 65% for regular season games, which was oddly low since a simple model nets around 63%.