APBRmetrics

Some thoughts on Russell, the number two guy on my list: 1) Having 3 all-stars for teammates isn't all that special when there are only 4-5 teams per conference. 2) How can we use win shares to evaluate other players and not mention Russell's Ruthian dominance on the defensive side of the ball accor...

I thought I had voted, but I didn’t push submit. Oops. But I wanted show the order in which I would place my 25 anyway. I had a hard time putting a certain sexual predator from the Lakers in my top 10; intellectual honesty requires me to put him there, but I don’t have to write his name there.

Based on box score stats alone:

1.Wilt
2.Jordan
3.Kareem
4.Lebron
5.Oscar
6.Magic
7.Bird
8.Shaq
9.Mailman
10.Barkley
11.D-Rob
12.Pettit
13.West
14.Hakeem
15.Duncan
16.KG
17.Stockton
18.Dirk
19.Kobe
20.Russell
21.Doc
22.Gervin
23.CP3
24.Moses
25.Wade

1.Jordan 2.Russell 3.Wilt 4.Kareem 5.Magic 6.Bird 7.Lebron 8.O'Neal 9.Duncan 10.the predator 11.Oscar 12.West 13.Hakeeeem!! 14.Doc 15.Pettit 16.Mikan 17.Moses 18.Cousy 19.Mailman 20.Baylor 21.Havlicek 22.Dirk 23.Garnett 24.Barkley 25.Wade If it can be quantified with numbers, then it can be used as ...

"The star players you listed (can't tell who most of them are) may fit by this formula pretty well." Really? It's an all-time list; I thought initials would be sufficient for any knowledgeable NBA fan. Anyway, as I said in my initial post, the formula is based on the range from the lg avg....

WS/48 PER-WS PER AVG 01 MJ 0.276 0.284 29.6 0.280 02 LBJ 0.264 0.275 29.0 0.270 03 SO 0.234 0.267 28.5 0.251 04 WC 0.259 0.261 28.1 0.260 05 DR 0.261 0.257 27.8 0.259 06 KAJ 0.262 0.242 26.8 0.252 07 CP3 0.254 0.232 26.1 0.243 08 DWD 0.195 0.225 25.6 0.210 09 BP 0.213 0.221 25.3 0.217 10 CB 0.219 0...

The following formula works for going from PER to WS/48: PER/200^(1-PER/240) 01.0 0.005 02.0 0.010 03.0 0.016 04.0 0.022 05.0 0.028 06.0 0.034 07.0 0.041 08.0 0.048 09.0 0.055 10.0 0.062 11.0 0.070 12.0 0.078 13.0 0.087 14.0 0.095 15.0 0.104 16.0 0.114 17.0 0.124 18.0 0.134 19.0 0.145 20.0 0.156 21....

PER includes blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, so I don't think you can say it's only a measure of offense.

I wasn't trying to predict anything. I just wanted to match one to the other as closely as I could. I think my formula does that pretty well. For my purposes it's OK to just ignore the rare players who have negative WS/48.


PS Aren't Win Shares more retrodictive than predictive?

Let's call it WinPER. I calculated it for the following 30 players (ages 21-32). You can see that it's pretty close to actual PER for most players. WS/48 WinPER PER AVG DIFF/AVG 01 MJ 0.276 28.9 29.6 29.2 -0.025 02 LBJ 0.264 28.1 29.0 28.5 -0.032 03 KAJ 0.262 27.9 26.8 27.4 0.042 04 DR 0.261 27.9 27...

Because I'm an amateur! I just ran across this earlier post on the subject and it inspired me:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=299

The average WS/48 is .100 and the all-time single-season high is .340 The average PER is 15.0 and the all-time single-season high is 31.8 Based on those ranges, I came up with the following simple formula for translating WS/48 to PER: WS/48^(1+WS/48) * 200^(1 - (WS/48)/5) Here are the general result...

I don't think both sides are equally wrong here. The players have made all the concessions. Dropping from 57% of revenue down to 51% is a huge concession; and that's not enough for the owners? In most businesses over 50% of revenue goes to labor; over 60% isn't unheard of. And I don't buy that all t...

This 50/50 nonsense is an appeal to "fairness", but don't forget there are only 30 owners, compared to over 450 players. The players have already conceded too much. Millionaires getting screwed by billionaires.... And the ABA is a better example from the past than the XFL; the XFL didn't h...

Mike, if player A shot 75 FT% playing for the '68 Sixers (.635 Tm FT%) would he be more valuable than player B shooting 75% on the '68 Royals (.762 Tm FT%)? If so, you're saying player A is more valuable merely because he played alongside Wilt when he was at his most inept from the line. Again, I th...