APBRmetrics

This is quite the honor. Thanks Crow!

Not sure if people have seen it, but earlier this year I built a metric for evaluating shot-selection. I've been calling it Expected Points Per Shot (XPPS), and it's built around expected point values for shots from different locations. It's a variation on TS% and the formula boils down to (Expected...

That's what I was shooting for with the top section of the visualization. The top graph shows the difference between each player's XPPS and their Actual Points per Shot. Positive differences move above the horizontal axis and are scaled into green. Negative differences move below the horizontal axis...

Hi all, I have some new work from Hickory-High I wanted to share. I was looking for a way to objectively quantify the quality of a player's shot selection. I used the expected values of shot from different locations to calculate the Expected Points Per Shot (XPPS) of each player. I also tried it usi...

I'll give it a shot Kathoro. It may take may a little while to get to it though, I have a few other projects stacking up. I'll certainly bring the results here though when I'm done.

Kathoro, have you actually tried that method or were you just suggesting the idea? My method had some interesting results but was ultimately pretty crude. The results were not very stable from season to season and were greatly skewed by both injuries and mid-season trades. I haven't really been back...

Thanks guys! Crow, leaving this site off the list of resources was a careless oversite. It's on there now, although I imagine a lot of the discussion here may be daunting for kids just getting started with stats. We would love feedback as the project develops. If anyone else has thoughts as you look...

Hey all, this is Ian from Hickory-High, looking for feedback on a project. I pay the bills as an elementary school teacher. Another educator and I have been working on a project that helps students develop math and science skills, construct arguments and conduct research, with basketball statistics ...

I meant are you actually going through each play-by-play log manually, or do you have a program that scrapes the data?

I've heard a few people (John Hollinger, David Thorpe, etc.) mention a high turnover rate as a rookie as an indicator of a player having a high ceiling. The idea being that it represents a certain amount of creativity and aggressiveness, both positive which can't be taught if not innately present in...

Are you doing this by hand coding play-by-play data?

http://GothicGinobili.com

They haven't had as many stats pieces lately, but at least one of the guys there is a professional statistician. I've really enjoyed the numbers pieces they've done.

Also gave Crow a shout-out towards the end of the post. I hope I didn't take away any of his mystique.

Finally finished running the numbers for the playoffs. There was a ton of variability from season to season, even more so than what the regular season shows. Surprisingly Mike Brown in 2009 came up as the top performance for an individual season. http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=2436 If anyone has tho...

Thanks for the mention Crow. I have one other way of looking at minute distributions for lineups based on +/- that I'm working on. The plan is then to take both methods and apply them to playoff data for the past few seasons. It will probably take me a few weeks, but it hopefully it will be up soon.