APBRmetrics

I would recommend this study on the topic: http://www.tothemean.com/Optimizing_End ... he_NBA.pdf

Justin Jackson is "Justin A. Jackson" in my spreadsheet to differentiate from the 2018 Orlando second-round pick. Andre Iguodala and Josh Jackson are both on the Grizzlies' roster, for the record, but I'm not projecting them to see any minutes at this point as Jackson is reporting to the G...

Minutes projections updated with final rosters for anyone still looking to get projections in:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... BHZEU/view

Minutes projections:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... BHZEU/view

I don't know the specific rule of the CBA, but yes, all players must go through the draft. If a player were to turn pro without declaring for the draft, he would be able to sign with another pro team -- including the D-League -- but would automatically become eligible for the following draft and cou...

Interesting topic! Do you have a graphic for clutch net rating vs. overall net rating? -Good teams are usually on the winning side of things, which helps them a lot in the final 30 seconds because they're shooting free throws while their opponents throw up desperate heaves. My sense is that while th...

As explained in the above link, using the stats.nba.com formula overestimates the number of possessions because it doesn't account for team offensive rebounds. In an individual game, that (as well as the estimate for free throw possessions that any estimator uses) mean the net ratings can get a litt...

There are multiple different ways to estimate possessions, as outlined here: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/12/21/nylon-calculus-101-possessions/ From a technical perspective, the Basketball-Reference formula offers the closest estimates to our working definition of possessions. However, they're clos...

A little late for the projection contest, but this is now updated with final rosters.

This has now been updated for recent injuries/current rotations.

I was on vacation this week but expect to update it with injuries and some rotation adjustments next week.

Hey all, since they were popular last year, again going to share the minutes projections I use for SCHOENE/RPM projections:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... ZMMkE/view

Any thought to using this to build coefficients for an NCAA-specific BPM, Daniel?

FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections have the top 10 most similar players:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/car ... n-afflalo/

Has anyone looked into this kind of thing? In particular, most team rating systems look at w/l record and/or point differential, along with a couple other factors, but I don't know of any that incorporate box score stats in any way. Could box score stats have some predictive power for a team's futu...