Search found 102 matches

by Kevin Pelton
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 134527

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Minutes projections updated with final rosters for anyone still looking to get projections in:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... BHZEU/view
by Kevin Pelton
Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Side-stepping the draft?
Replies: 5
Views: 4083

Re: Side-stepping the draft?

I don't know the specific rule of the CBA, but yes, all players must go through the draft. If a player were to turn pro without declaring for the draft, he would be able to sign with another pro team -- including the D-League -- but would automatically become eligible for the following draft and cou...
by Kevin Pelton
Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adventures in clutch time
Replies: 6
Views: 4995

Re: Adventures in clutch time

Interesting topic! Do you have a graphic for clutch net rating vs. overall net rating? -Good teams are usually on the winning side of things, which helps them a lot in the final 30 seconds because they're shooting free throws while their opponents throw up desperate heaves. My sense is that while th...
by Kevin Pelton
Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: stats.nba.com
Replies: 5
Views: 7995

Re: stats.nba.com

As explained in the above link, using the stats.nba.com formula overestimates the number of possessions because it doesn't account for team offensive rebounds. In an individual game, that (as well as the estimate for free throw possessions that any estimator uses) mean the net ratings can get a litt...
by Kevin Pelton
Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: stats.nba.com
Replies: 5
Views: 7995

Re: stats.nba.com

There are multiple different ways to estimate possessions, as outlined here: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/12/21/nylon-calculus-101-possessions/ From a technical perspective, the Basketball-Reference formula offers the closest estimates to our working definition of possessions. However, they're clos...
by Kevin Pelton
Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 minutes projections
Replies: 5
Views: 6894

Re: 2016-17 minutes projections

A little late for the projection contest, but this is now updated with final rosters.
by Kevin Pelton
Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:25 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 minutes projections
Replies: 5
Views: 6894

Re: 2016-17 minutes projections

This has now been updated for recent injuries/current rotations.
by Kevin Pelton
Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 minutes projections
Replies: 5
Views: 6894

Re: 2016-17 minutes projections

I was on vacation this week but expect to update it with injuries and some rotation adjustments next week.
by Kevin Pelton
Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 minutes projections
Replies: 5
Views: 6894

2016-17 minutes projections

Hey all, since they were popular last year, again going to share the minutes projections I use for SCHOENE/RPM projections:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... ZMMkE/view
by Kevin Pelton
Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NCAA Major-Conference RAPM Last 6 Seasons
Replies: 9
Views: 6953

Re: NCAA Major-Conference RAPM Last 6 Seasons

Any thought to using this to build coefficients for an NCAA-specific BPM, Daniel?
by Kevin Pelton
Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Source for Similarity Scores of Current NBA Players?
Replies: 7
Views: 6251

Re: Source for Similarity Scores of Current NBA Players?

FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections have the top 10 most similar players:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/car ... n-afflalo/
by Kevin Pelton
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can we tell if a team is playing well?
Replies: 14
Views: 9504

Re: Can we tell if a team is playing well?

Has anyone looked into this kind of thing? In particular, most team rating systems look at w/l record and/or point differential, along with a couple other factors, but I don't know of any that incorporate box score stats in any way. Could box score stats have some predictive power for a team's futu...
by Kevin Pelton
Sun May 22, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pace of Play Calculations
Replies: 11
Views: 12245

Re: Pace of Play Calculations

Not in exactly the same way, but Mike Beuoy's research effectively shows the same thing: http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/03/of ... n-nba.html

Offensive and defensive possession lengths available for this season here: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamPoss.php
by Kevin Pelton
Fri May 06, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Age vs. Minutes?
Replies: 3
Views: 3420

Re: Age vs. Minutes?

I don't think I've ever really written it up, but the research I've done in the past generally suggested that when you accounted for age, experience didn't matter for season-to-season development. The one notable exception seemed to be international players improving from year one to year two in the...