APBRmetrics

Yeah managing to get that model from the box score alone has been quite pleasing. It's not reinventing the wheel, but combined with my streaming variant of a plus minus model it has pretty strong predictive power (though I have a model which uses an extended play-by-play box score which is what I u...

I'd be curious to see what your features are, are they total statistics, or per 100 statistics, or both? Do you include mpg as a feature, and whether somebody starts? It is difficult for a purely linear model to capture players well in the box score, especially without a fiddle like many stats use ...

Kinda OT but still relevant to this topic, Nothing more frustrating to me than people not rounding up their stats to the proper decimal place. Nobody needs to need to see an RAPM down to 10 decimal places. No one is making decision based on that level of precision. Keep it at 2 decimal places at mo...

Looks good, did you find much of a change hyperparameter wise? Did you run a penalized linear regression using the same splits to compare? Hyperparameters were mostly the same but the biggest change was much larger regularization which supports what you previous mentioned about memorizing players. ...

I may as well just tell you that I have done both, and that the hyperparameter tuning tends towards trees that identify individuals rather than trees that identify player archetypes if they are tuned with the same players in the train and test sets. Frankly I would be avoiding a tree depth greater ...

Using this data to talk about contenders: The 2 methods yield an average of 3 conference finalist teams with a top 5 rated player. By historical standards, that appears to be the list of qualified / "true" / final title contenders. Nuggets and Sixers made both top 5s. Celtics and Heat mad...

I may as well just tell you that I have done both, and that the hyperparameter tuning tends towards trees that identify individuals rather than trees that identify player archetypes if they are tuned with the same players in the train and test sets. Frankly I would be avoiding a tree depth greater ...

Are you including the same players in the test set as the training set? I am aware you are using a later season for the test set, but if there is overlap between the train and test sets in terms of players, then you have a leakage issue which xgboost will be able to take advantage of more than the ...

Hi, Just wanted to write a small note: following my previous post about calculating RAPM, I used 3 year look-back for RAPM for the end of season 16-17 season to 21-22, with 22-23 as test set. Inputs are stats from stats.nba with some pre-processing. With traditional stats + linear regression (had so...

I didn't do this for memory costs - I did this because estimates for low usage players would be inaccurate/unstable anyway so we may be better off replacing them with static values. Ridge penalization makes these not so unstable already, at least in an absolute sense Yes, L2 does do that but that d...

I ended up making those rubber-band and FT%, 3PT% adjustments over the weekend. Results are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vShyUauL2MGSO4I3OZDplUfXh7Qpe1wk9CLFBSCKzaMqIeznErQN0laz0RxaKdDHGmP7yGYcbNt86Zz/pubhtml The results are a little different. Are they better? Really hard t...

The results look pretty sane, so good job Thank you! 1. Download NBA play by play data, using defensive rebound, turnover, end of clock, made shots to split possessions and convert to stints. Tried to be careful here but there's definitely some cases I didn't handle. Don't forget And1s Ah I forgot,...

Here is the converted one! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... q4/pubhtml

Hi, Thanks for taking the time to read this! I thought I'd take the time to compute RAPM myself for fun and I wanted to get some feedback and sanity checking. My methodology is as below: 1. Download NBA play by play data, using defensive rebound, turnover, end of clock, made shots to split possessio...

NBA teams pay much more attention to playcalls than lineups. Would be useful to check play efficiency by major lineups or lineup clusters. Does bballindex.com or Synergy or other source have this data by playtype? How consistent is play efficiency across lineups? If it is not very consistent then l...