APBRmetrics

Mike, would you mind posting the updated full projections with the Bucks + TmTJ update?

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62 Boston Celtics: 60.8 Philadelphia 76ers: 55.1 Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 Denver Nuggets: 51.3 Cleveland Cavaliers: 50.1 Phoenix Suns: 49.9 New Orleans Pelicans: 49.4 Golden State Warriors: 48.4 New York Knicks: 48.4 Orlando Magic: 47.5 Indiana Pacers: 47 Dallas Mavericks: 4...

Thanks! Hoping to avoid the sophomore slump next year

Sorry, horribly worded on my part. By "predicted wins" I was referring to bball-ref predicted wins. In hindsight the formula for replacing the current model (projected wins) is even simpler: remaining wins + predicted wins (with predicted wins as bball-ref predicted wins). This would mitig...

Mike, what would the standings look like if some luck was removed and instead of projected wins as the basis for scoring, it was something like projected wins + (predicted wins - actual wins)?

I didn't have his RAPM to look at when I posted the other information, but that is an important part of the positive story. Every case, if pursued with an open-mind, "should" look at everything and think about it and beyond. Considerations can be gathered by one, two or more. I hear you a...

His +/- per 100 the last 4 seasons is over +5, and his on-off is over +4. RAPM last 3 seasons over +3 (ranked 33rd in league). I think the box score weaknesses you've cited are the same flaws that many models (BPM, DARKO, etc.) are overweighing with Dillon Brooks. His pbp data consistently shows pos...

Just seeing this, thanks for the help!

I'll take the beginner's luck. Hope it holds

Darko projection has been in decline for Dillon Brooks since early last season and is continuing this season. Big fan of DARKO, but that estimate seems quite off. Most +/- models are generally accurate, but not always specifically so. Dillon Brooks shooting career high efficiency (by a mile), being...

I don't think this is the right thread, but I had a few data questions: 1) What is the best public source of raw play-by-play data? 2a) Is there any public play-by-play source that also has shot location and/or closest defender data? 2b) Or is there a public play-by-play source that has expected eFG%?

Thanks for updating daily, Mike!

I've been helped a lot by combined losing streaks of 31 games between CHA, WAS, DET, POR, and SAS.