APBRmetrics

Anything to say about dataset acquisition and manipulation? The data is scraped from stats.ncaa in R. About your question about future improvements, I would really like to make it a multiyear predictive metric similar to EPM. This would result in big improvements, especially on the defensive end. H...

Hello, Ryan, This looks very impressive. It certainly passes the straight-face test. Results definitely look to be a similar scale to BPM, with a lot of the same names near the top. https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=53&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501 Thank yo...

I don't really have anything new to add to the NBA-metrics sphere. After I start backfilling more years I may see how well it predicts NBA EPM.

Thanks for creating, sharing. Will review with interest. Any chance you would correlate your values with the other metrics out there including BPM? If you really wanted to analyze further, find the correlations by position. For my tastes, there is a lot of space between columns, that could be reduc...

Hello, Ryan, This looks very impressive. It certainly passes the straight-face test. Results definitely look to be a similar scale to BPM, with a lot of the same names near the top. https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=53&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501 Thank yo...

Hi all, As March Madness is right around the corner, thought I'd share an impact metric that I've created for college basketball. I did not reinvent the wheel here, as it is a box score based prior informed RAPM metric similar to the old version of EPM and LEBRON (hence the name PPM - Predicted-Plus...

I think it's due to the BPM at Sports Reference being tied to their small sample adjusted team ratings while the Bart Torvik BPM being tied to its projected team ratings. Cincinnati is down at 79 in the SR ratings while it is at 28 on Bart Torvik. Here's the Sports Reference adjusted team ratings wi...

Looks like EPM is now predictive, using projected box score inputs in the SPM instead of only using within-season stats. Results look pretty good to the eye, but Luka Garza's offensive projection is pretty lofty.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

Thank you for that! Did what I say about luck adjustments seem like it would make sense, or would that have pitfalls. I think right now im just going to keep it un-luck adjusted on offense and luck adjust it for defensive values and put them together (not including free throws of course) I personal...

The prior is usually box stats regressed against RAPM. The way that I've seen prior informed RAPM calculated here, as well as other places, is to create an expected score margin from the linear combination of player priors on the floor. You then subtract the expectation from the actual results and ...

The prior is usually box stats regressed against RAPM. The way that I've seen prior informed RAPM calculated here, as well as other places, is to create an expected score margin from the linear combination of player priors on the floor. You then subtract the expectation from the actual results and t...

So its working but its incredibly slow (going to take around 2-3 days to get the data I need), or is that just how long it would be expected to take? it gets box score id, and then play by play id since it cant get play by play id directly. Yeah scraping a lot of games takes awhile. First it compil...

This will be sort of a solution. There is an R package that scrapes pbp from stats.ncaa called bigballR. There is a function called get_play_by_play which scrapes the pbp and a function called get_possessions which parses it and returns information that includes the players on the court. The problem...

That estimate does seem to make more sense. Median EPM is ~-1.5 and median DPM is ~-1, so replacement level being about 2 points below that seems about right.