APBRmetrics

Any explanation for this? Lineup trickery? 3PT shooting 'luck'? Seemed to continue in the playoffs, albeit a small sample size. DFS and Luka continue to look great. Has anyone ran an adjust for this? XRAPM(the site) has his single season rapm at -2.9(9th percentile). He seems to be opting into his c...

Hi everyone, I'm thinking of extending my approach to build an SPM for the NBA and for the game basketballgm. The model I’m working on uses **RAPM from the JE dataset** as a foundation, aiming to combine its stability with box score and potentially tracking data to create a metric that’s both predic...

If you don't test out of sample you end up with an overfit and non-robust model. leave-one-out out-of-sample mean-squared prediction error One question I have about these remarks specifically: I know using in-sample R^2 is bad, and I made a mistake doing this, but I'm using the cross_val_score func...

fwiw, ~8 years seems to be the sweet spot My current confusion with using longer RAPM(which has less noise and should have less collinearity), even when age-adjusted, would be how I accurately get a predictor variable for this longer RAPM. Averaging values seems to make some intuitive sense, but I'...

Also, I wish there were more available spasms, lol. It doesn't seem like a too daunting task; maybe the reward just isn't worth it. I meant to say SPMs here, lol. I just realized you co-created ESPN's RPM. Is there any reason for it being updated based on what you and Steve worked on, and then it g...

Thanks for the replies. Generally, it's better to put in a "best guess" of the player's "true ability." The most straightforward example is that a player who made 2/2 threes should probably not be in the SPM regression with 100% 3p%. Can use Bayesian inference, Kalman filter, or ...

Hey all, I'm currently creating a Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM) model for personal use. I plan on building different variants of the model, starting from raw box score data (for use in the game Basketball GM) and eventually incorporating play-by-play data and other advanced metrics. Right now, I have...