APBRmetrics

Normally I've seen people using whatever metric- MAMBA, LEBRON, EPM, DARKO etc. and take that to generate win probabilities based on the minutes and simulate the season (or you can just calculate and add up based on the schedule). But I honestly think that is maybe unnecessarily complicated and tha...

Sounds like an age adjustment was the missing piece for me :lol: I was doing this as a preliminary test of the metric, so I was more so concerned to see where it would rank by all star break before trade deadline shenanigans happened. Looking through my results it felt like age adjustment stuff + it...

Out of curiousity, how would my results look if they were regressed a tad more, let’s say with the same variance as the winner?

Won’t be allowed to enter the contest going forward so curious on that front

Congrats DTKA
wild finish just like the play in lol, teams I wanted to win personally won so Im happy with this too (although would rather some east stuff have gone my way D: )

Well that’s not ideal for me lol

hm I think dtka won actually, since Denver should be a lock to beat houstan

kmedved wrote: ↑Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:35 pm

What’s the difference between the LEBRON and EPM projections and the advanced model and Vegas advanced model ones?

Crow wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:46 am They wouldn't meet til 2nd or 3rd round (unless there is a major shift) and both get out of at least first round.

I’d say the rockets are pretty likely to lose in the first round depending on who they play

I don’t think there’s an issue with including LEBRON or EPM projections since he went on here to post and it’s not like either would win anyway

Has anyone posted a link to these, with certainty that they were made pre-season? FWIW, I have a blend of BPM, WS, PER, and eWins that would be in first place; but I didn't enter it before the season, and I've not listed it. DARKO came out the day after or day of, the BBI ones are here https://www....

So seems like a bunch of people were interested in seeing where LEBRON/DARKO rank but don't see it included? From my understanding, Darko would be first, and using the BBI projections, EPM would be between AvgA and median, and LEBRON would be a bit behind BPM, going by the bbref projections which i...

-- But you're attempting to do a player ranking rather than find actionable insights right? I do think that there are better ways to rank players and isolate them from certain variables that are either not necessarily their fault or out of control than all in one impact metrics, but that isnt what ...

Crow wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 7:11 pm My periodically revised estimates to win title:

Celtics 25%
Cavs 21
Thunder 26
Nuggets 7
Rockets 4
Warriors 5
Knicks 3
Timberwolves 5
Field 4

Lakers are beating the rockets in 5 lol

I’ll do a joint victory with dtka like in the 2020 dunk contest Wont be allowed to enter competition after this I think either way for awhile lol

Peltons R^2 is nuts