APBRmetrics

Checking back in on this thread, ultimately we have to recognize that there is a divergence between the two methodologies - % of production* per game - predicting RAPM and/or +/- stint data By now, it should be very clear what my views are: I'm obviously a fan of the first approach for a multitude o...

league) correlates 0.956 and 0.92 respectively with MOV whereas mine correlates 0.98 due to the inclusion of +/-) So like, you go into these conversations with a weird apriori belief that no one understands what you are saying when what you are saying is extremely rudimentary I don’t have much issu...

it should be pretty obvious for a stat that relies on something like on court plus minus that the idea that it’s an absolute measure of reality on a single game sample sizes is simply nonsense, and that’s kind of the crux of my issue here, I think there is an interesting discussion to have over the...

Without wading in to all this discussion of luck and other such things, I feel the need to point out that the initial post in this thread smacks of a failure to understand what RAPM is. Statements such as the idea that RAPM is regularised in order to predict out of sample RAPM are entirely incorrec...

j I’m not against the idea that it being an OT game might have inflated the totals a tad compared to what you’d expect, but the dude said Jalen Williams having 16-6-6 was the best performance that night because okc win by a lot or something it was very funny Nah man you purposely being dense. It's ...

- what essentially is a linear model that just replicates how human beings see a box score lol Ok but at least it succeeds at something (btw I've used them - converted to APM) to predict future NBA Games with a log loss matching Vegas (~0.59) solely based on the players who played 5+ minutes (no ne...

Hi everyone, Sorry for the 2 week delay in checking this thread. I was spending last week slandering Jokic's 30/20/20 since the statline didn't show the defense. I'll catchup with all the replies and respond accordingly over the weekend. To rephrase my argument, I don't think RAPM is complete garbag...

Thought I'd create an account here for more meaningful discussions. I've layed out all my thoughts on RAPM here ( https://x.com/sportsandmath1/status/1895219187389452605?s=46 ) and @Crow/bballstrategy suggested to "take your case directly to one or more authors of RAPM or hybrids, if they are w...