APBRmetrics

There must be something Ollie contributed, beyond what a guy off the street could do, to average 15 minutes over 13 years. As you note, he didn't do much else that showed up in the boxscores, other than his 5.2 Ast/36. My theory on Ollie is that he managed to stay in the league for so long not beca...

Yeah. I don't think you can tease it out that way. What I was thinking of was something more along the lines of this: Rose on: 60% of team baskets assisted. 25% of Rose's baskets are assisted. I don't know how many FGs when he is on the court are his, but assume 30%. Getting that 30% number is the o...

Here's a link to the blog post. http://thecity2.com/2012/02/19/2-12-year-ridge-regressed-adjusted-assists/ Everything is per 100 possessions. It's not easy to compare between positions like you did with Horford and Fisher, because how do you separate whether assists are being "created" by...

if you're a designted fouler, then the APM defense might be artificially poor. That's an extra-valid point, I believe. No idea what the full impact would be, Jerry. Just postulating! Just trying to contextualize what it means to be "off-court" It's easy to see situations where a team is d...

I calculated adjusted assists a few weeks ago using the previous "2.5" seasons. You can see the complication of having players who create assists by being good passers (Kidd, DWill, Nash, etc) or good shooters (Korver, Boozer?, etc). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al6a2ecvJf...

Is a pass leading to a layup/dunk worth more than a pass to a player for an open 20 footer? You bet it is. Are all assists equal? Hardly. A pass leading to a layup is likely to become an assist, while a pass for an open 20' shot is maybe 50% likely to produce a FG, and therefore to register an assi...

Isn't this only a problem when there's a large difference in "points per possession" when being in the bonus vs _not_ being in the bonus? Yup. No idea of what the difference would be though. Another area this may creep in is end of game situations where teams are using a high risk strateg...

Nope. I understand the limitation of the premise. That's why if you read again, I referred to those limitations based upon offensive/defensive scheme. Sorry, I see that I lost my point a bit in the previous post. It wasn't so much that the value changes depending on the different schemes, but that ...

... I don't think it's a stretch to say that five assists from a Sabonis or a Bill Walton in 32 minutes is worth more than 5 assists from Kevin Ollie over the same minutes. .. Worth more to whom? It doesn't count more on the scoreboard when the center is doing the assisting. Seems like rather a str...

In this instance, there is nothing controversial about stating that the G's DRB contribution is equal to that of the big man and that each G DRB is worth twice as much to a team as one DRB from the interior player. I think that conclusion is based on the wrong premise.The idea that replacement leve...

I just think it's not consistent to say that A. box score events like rebounds have concrete, consistent value in terms of wins and losses and B. that contribution is more valuable depending on the 1-5 position that player is assigned. If a steal or ORB is worth one possession, full stop, how can i...

Actually, that is not true. I used ORB%, thus the lesser amount of available rebounds is accounted for. ;) That make sense. The way I read it, it sounded like you were working w/ raw numbers rather than rates. The fact is that in the last couple of seasons a lot of teams realized that having stretc...

I guess he's still not dealing with replacement level on rebounding? No, he hasn't solved the real issue at all. The problem was never defensive rebounding alone. An important problem with his metric comes from the fact that his formula thinks a player can score points without using a possession. A...