APBRmetrics

What is your level of satisfaction with this now? What I'm happy with: The model itself. It's producing reasonable numbers, and seems appropriately calibrated to actual data. Being able to add a version adjusted for pre-game odds. Making the pre-game odds version the default. In the moment, I think...

It looks like the period counter isn't handling overtime correctly. It looks like Toronto just went from 0.00 to 0.01 win probability which ought to be impossible unless that 0 is rounding down. Excitement and comeback are showing 0.0, which might be wrong. Thanks Nate. Appreciate the feedback. I t...

I'm experimenting with live win probabilities for the playoffs. Here's the link: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_live.php

Please don't tweet out links just yet. But let me know if anything looks odd. If today goes well I'll probably do an official launch tomorrow.

... league average free throw offensive rebound rate of 19% ... Is it really that high? The overall OReb% is .251, and I'd thought that on missed/reboundable FT it was less than half of that. Whoops. You're right. It is not that high. I grabbed that number from a stale set of code. The number I hav...

Using my Win Probability Model Assuming a league average ft% of 76% and a league average free throw offensive rebound rate of 19%: For evenly matched teams: Win probability with possession, tie game, and 0:20 on the clock: 62% Win probability with two free throws to shoot, tie game, and 0:20 on the ...

... Another callout - Possessions off of turnovers (1.12 points/poss) are significantly more efficient than possessions off of made shots (1.00 points/poss) or defensive rebounds (points/poss). But the Brooklyn Nets haven't got the memo. Their efficiency off of turnovers is not better than efficien...

Thanks for the comment, and I don't want to presume, but possession origin isn't really a relevant factor for understanding the particular issues at hand. Whatever the origin, either the offense fast breaks and beats the defense down the court so as to get a higher quality shot (in expectation) tha...

Very interesting stuff Ed. Can you define what a "comeback" situation is? Is it whenever the team is trailing? Or only when they trail but ultimately win? Or only when trailing by a certain amount?

I've got things broken out by how the possession began which I think may get at what you need. There are three main ways a possession can start: after your opponent makes a shot (or their final free throw), off of a turnover, or off of a defensive rebound. I will share how each team's pace varies by...

New post up that touches on this topic. I'm using standard play by play data to measure offensive and defensive pace separately - no SportVU data needed. Offensive versus Defensive Pace in the NBA The Warriors' have by far the league's lowest seconds per possession on offense, 13.4 seconds per posse...

This really murders deandre jordan for his ft shooting. If he could shoot league average he would go from ranked 180 to 13th. That feels pretty extreme. Like ft shooting shouldn't have that much affect. It doesn't kill his TS% that badly. I summarize win probability added due to free throw shooting...

These %s are still based on the play by play model, right? Correct. In past I've converted team four factor data into "factor wins". Seeing your WPAs is interesting, but I wonder if you'd also find use in presenting your findings in terms of wins added by factor? Simple enough to convert ...

Do you post team-level WPA totals somewhere on your site? As luck would have it, I've been working on such a feature. It's in soft launch mode now, but here's a link: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeam.php?season=2014&po=0&frdt=2014-10-28&todt=2015-02-20&rate=tot&sort=wp...

I think the discrepancy can be explained by the large amount of luck (random variance) at the single game level. Just doing some back-of-envelope calculations, the SD for random variance for a team with a true FG% of 50% would be about 7.5 points. That is, in 33% of games a team would score 7.5 or ...

I've got a new post up on my site on the relative importance of the four factors: How NBA Games Are Won The basic idea is to assess how important each factor is by summing up its associated win probability added (with respect to the winning team). The results indicate that shooting is even more impo...