APBRmetrics

My hypothesis is that a 22-ft jumper early in the shot clock is going to be roughly equivalent to one late in the shot clock. That is closer to the truth than has been discussed so far. In fact it is actually fairly accurate, I wouldn't hesitate to make that comment. But more to the spirit of why y...

Ahhh.. thanks for the description about (22). That is a good strategy. But we need to work on what graph we are integrating over. I have some ideas, but we need to come to a consensus to the principles currently being discussed before more new principles should be introduced.

Ok. I'll break down my logic in a part by part manner so you can better understand why I chose the words I did. But first of all, I will try to illustrate where exactly I think we have a lack of agreement in active principles. When I say the data for shots taken in the later part of the shot clock a...

Ok Even. I just reread your post, and I don't think I ever intended to contradict it. I think we just had a breakdown in communication.

Thanks Evan, I appreciate the reply. But that still doesn't relate to my understanding. What I'm getting at, is players will sometimes settle for the early shot instead of working for a later shot. This is not the same as passing up an early shot and settling for a later shot. Why I say that this th...

Honestly I think this thread is heading away from a valid theory, rather than narrowing in on one. I thought I described this clearly, but it hasn't yet been picked up on. The assumption that this thread is leading to conclude is that an offense generally begins with a better shot than later, and pl...

just a straight calibration) is that the "observed" shot threshold at the beginning of the half-court shot clock (i.e at 16 seconds) is much higher than almost all NBA players' ability to shoot long 2s. This data is biased. Consider a simple random sample of possession qualities. Some of ...

GravAndLev, this graph could be a result of the diminishing returns garnered by teams trying improve an already below average quality possession, meaning the data used in the later period of the shot clock is biased towards these already poor possessions. It seems to me that you have the concept tha...

Teams probably feel there is a minimal-quality shot (say, .9 points) that they can nearly always get off before time expires. A 45% guaranteed shot success seems incredibly optimistic to me. In my observations of basketball games, the vast majority of misses are due to well executed defense, not ba...

Hello. First of all I am optimistic and interested in this article, but I have a question at (22). Why did you choose to take a ratio of the integration of shot quality over the period of time chosen rather than solving for t when F is maximal? It would seem to me that the best basketball strategy w...