APBRmetrics

Two more from October. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/13980771/most-overrated-teams-mvp-candidates-playoff-races-nba Pelton's preseason projections based on RPM: TEAM WINS SIM Golden State 59.8 58.5 San Antonio 58.3 57.2 Cleveland 55.1 55.4 Houston 54.6 53.0 Okla City 54.0 53.2 L....

Results from our survey: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... -the-crowd

Thanks to the participants, including those from this group.

Folks: Having worked with Hollinger and Pelton as they developed their draft raters, I'm impressed by the work being done here to move the field forward. We have a new draft prospect ranking system that I'm trying this year, incorporating the opinions of both professional and amateur draft analysts ...

As everyone here knows, defense is indeed difficult to assess and properly weigh, and not just for our panel, but for almost everyone and for most systems. And it's all the more difficult because offense and defense work so differently from each other in basketball, and because they can affect each ...

Interested in this discussion. The wisdom of the crowd can be phenomenal, particularly when done well, and I'm constantly looking for ways to improve our approach. The results we've seen have been eye-opening to me and we hope to extend that success. As for #NBArank, please don't assume that the pan...

For posterity, the ESPN.com Fall Forecast published earlier this month in another format and again today ...

East: http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2014/stor ... -standings
West: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11779 ... -standings

ESPN Forecast (wisdom of crowds panel): AVERAGE ERROR 6.67 (Summer Forecast; August) 6.67 (Fall Forecast; October) RMSE 9.10 (Summer Forecast) 9.21 (Fall Forecast) Lots of very accurate predictions (getting team W-L right or very close), and lots of very inaccurate predictions; strange season that w...

With just a few games left - relative to b-r.com forecast ... relative to 2013 Pyth. Bobb 6.04 jank 6.98 Bobb 3.40 jank 2.46 ATC 6.51 fpli 7.54 ATC 2.93 fpli 1.90 hDon 6.52 deep 8.06 hDon 2.92 deep 1.38 jBro 6.72 eW 8.33 jBro 2.72 eW 1.11 Yoop 6.84 416x 8.51 Yoop 2.60 416x 0.93 ncs 6.90 13Py 9.44 n...

Great great work guys. How often will this be updated? Continuously? It's been out a week almost with no update on the stats. The plan is to update the numbers at least once a week throughout the remainder of the season and the postseason. That was the best, most practical solution to ensure that w...

Thanks for the input so far. With the great guidance we've received from J.E. and Steve, we will continue to do our best to communicate what these metrics are all about to the millions in our very broad audience, made up of people of all ages, backgrounds and perspectives. For many, Monday's rollout...

Jerry and Steve, separately and now together, have done fantastic work for years and I'm glad we can bring some of it to a bigger audience. This board has been a great incubator for many ideas over the years, and for that I'm grateful as well. This is Day 1 of the rollout. There will be more, with s...

ESPN Fall Forecast (in addition to ESPN Summer Forecast):

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/stor ... -standings
http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/stor ... -standings

Thanks, Neil.

This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early. The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast. C'est la vie. Royce When was Hollinger's forecast r...

This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.

The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.

C'est la vie.

Royce