APBRmetrics

Kinda OT but still relevant to this topic, Nothing more frustrating to me than people not rounding up their stats to the proper decimal place. Nobody needs to need to see an RAPM down to 10 decimal places. No one is making decision based on that level of precision. Keep it at 2 decimal places at mos...

The Athletic has a great article on CP3 changing his game when his team is in the bonus. He tends to draw more non-shooting fouls in those situations and has a disproportionate amount of his FT's from those situations. https://theathletic.com/1451155/2019/12/11/we-get-calls-he-shoots-free-throws-the...

DSMok1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:54 pm That's a very interesting point! I wonder how that adjustment could be made.

It can be a variable like HCA. "In the Penalty" or "Not in the Penalty" for both offense and defense.

I was watching a game recently and saw a bench player come in the game late in the quarter. He gets fouled then heads to the free throw line for 2. That play made me realize another flaw of RAPM. That bench player is getting credit from him teammates drawing fouls and getting the team into penalty....

No one had the Lakers winning. Neither did anyone think Miami would be in the finals.

I was watching a game recently and saw a bench player come in the game late in the quarter. He gets fouled then heads to the free throw line for 2. That play made me realize another flaw of RAPM. That bench player is getting credit from him teammates drawing fouls and getting the team into penalty. ...

Dsmok, I've been thinking about BPM a bit recently and how it can accurately reflect the impact of big men. Have you thought about incorporating counterpart stats in your defensive stats? It's not going to tell a lot but every slight improvement is big. You have a positional adjustment already in yo...

That certainly could be an interesting and effective upgrade. I have generally avoided using any opponent statistics... would this be worthwhile? What about 3Pt% luck? Paging @bbstats... 3 point luck is getting into tricky territory. Adjusting for Free throws is easy and intuitive. Maybe you can re...

Awesome work DSmok. I've spent quite a bit of time exploring the BPM leaderboards to get a better understanding of the stat. I can say for certain that BPM is the best box score stat. Almost all of the players that BPM loves are good players. More importantly, BPM seems to identify bad players that ...

Interesting GmBPM (that's the linear BPM) evaluation: What if we let the points from 3 pointers, 2 pointers, and free throws each have a different value? Remember, this regression attributes value to the player AND ALL LEFTOVER VALUE TO THE REST OF THE TEAM. So--maybe some scoring shows more for th...

Dsmok, One way you can improve the accuracy is to take into account missed games when you adjust a players stat on a team level. That way a player whose team falls off when he is out gets more credit and does not get unfairly penalized for his teams bad results in games he missed. Example: Current B...

J.E. wrote:

Crow wrote:If coaches were in RPM again (occasionally or always) how much of the DRPM decline would stick to McMillan?

The difference between Vogel's and McMillan's estimated defensive impact is ~1.3 per 100 in favor of Vogel
That includes data from the current season

Is there a list for this data?

it probably lines up with a 15-20 game rolling net rtg or rolling srs the results are pretty clearly ridiculous though, and i'm guessing they'll make some revisions along with their win prediction methodology in general this offseason I don't see how a 20 game rolling average is supposed to be more...

I get GSW: 92% SAS: 71% HOU: 71% LAC: 66% BOS: 65% CLE: 71% TOR: 64% WAS: 69% using the Pythagorean formula with an exponent of 10.5 - that's what I found to give best prediction results when I studied it years ago Seems like my version expects more upsets. Admittedly, 92% for the Warriors seems lo...

You don't need high school stats. Have you thought about putting high school recruiting rankings in your model? Might help with predictive ability.