APBRmetrics

Jon, Thanks so much for the data!

Statman, you can get CBA data from Real Gm. Not much time-depth, but should be enough for contextualizing numbers. Bigger issue is that there isn't much overlap with other leagues for comparison.

Feel free to chop up my blurb as much as you like. Worth noting as a general point in comparing those lists... Only one player on the "models underrated" list is from outside the five power conferences, while six of the guys in the "models overrated" list are from schools with le...

Did you want international projections for this version?

I can throw them up...

Mudiay 4.1
Porzingis 4.9
Hezonja 3.8
Gudaitis 3.8
Vezenkov 2.7
Hernangomez 2.3
Osman 2.4
Jaiteh 1.8
Diaz 1.6
Garcia 1.6
Milutinov 1.7

Seems the "hot hand" as it is traditionally used is a completely different animal than in the context of a three-point competition or home run derby. I'd be surprised if anyone debates that you can get dialed in to a repetitive task. Snowballing recent success when you are taking shots fro...

BTW... regarding the issue of how to standardize the models, I think rank order is going to be the most intuitive for folks to read. Yes it has problems, but it really shouldn't pervert the outcomes much at all.

I put together a blurb for the follow-up article. Not as specific to my model as is probably ideal... and maybe a bit preachy... but I hope it works. Let me know if there is anything I can remove/add to help it fit better with the theme. In comparing out-of-sample retrodictions to actual draft order...

Crow... I agree with your impression. eFG% seems to be an impossible nut to crack. How the hell do you predict that Shabazz Muhammad is going to come into the NBA and shoot a considerably higher percentage than he did in college while roughly maintaining usage%? How do you project that Michael Redd,...

Average payoff (in peak wins) at each draft slot (1990-2012) by "actual order", "EWP rank", HUM rank":

Crow..

Interestingly, fellow Ute Andre Miller consistently pops up as Delon Wright's best comp in each season.

Jonathan,

That sounds like an excellent idea. Describing why guys are rated +/- relative to scouts is the perfect way to translate the numbers in a way that make them useful for people.

Great article. Thanks for putting this together.

Good idea DSmok I made some minor changes to fit those criteria: My name is Layne Vashro. I am presenting my simple “Estimated Wins Peak” (EWP) here, but I've put together a number of different projection models and tools to help evaluate incoming talent. These include several NCAA/International mod...

re: D'Angelo over Towns... They are effectively tied. Steals are probably the biggest reason why Towns doesn't run away with it. I think that is something worth attending to, since high steal rates historically help separate guys like Robinson, Hakeem, Shaq, Ewing, Davis... from the rest of the big ...

My name is Layne Vashro. I am presenting my simple “Estimated Wins Peak” (EWP) here, but I've put together a number of different projection models and tools to help evaluate incoming talent. These include several NCAA/International models, a player-season comparison finder, a tool that that shows ho...

My concern with Weber isn't limited data (he only missed something like 2 games to injury), but rather that he isn't in consideration for teams due to the fact that he will be unable to play next season.