APBRmetrics

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Broadly speaking the model reflects, in my opinion, the biases of the underlying era it is built on. I build on a broad era for my use day-to-day, but with a bias towards more recent data. This is because I perceive, and I think it is trivial to observe, that player assessment, or perhaps assessment...

I'd be happy to explain to the op all of the flaws I can see in their critique of RAPM, if they ever return to this thread and are curious.

To reiterate I don't really value RAPM.

They seemed quite zealous whilst being inaccurate, however, so I am not sure they'll be returning.

"I was speaking of myself, having reflected, and fed some ducks " OK, then I won't take it personal unless you say it directly about me. I was saying it about myself. My sharp elbows don't do me any good, only make me seem a bull in a china shop. Make me seem dull but hoping belligerence ...

So the answer to my question, as I understand it, is no. You haven't devised a framework within which you can test your hypotheses. I cannot in good conscience take them seriously, in that case. Perhaps they have value, but if it cannot be proven statistically, then it is hard to make that argument ...

I was speaking of myself, having reflected, and fed some ducks.

In my years investigating these things, I've found essentially zero value in looking at point differential at the individual lineup level... The sources of noise and other variance swamp any signal. It takes multiple years of data, thousands of minutes, to start to get that noise under control... A...

"And I have such a model, it is very edifying, it's a strong predictor of team performance." You are most interested in predicting team performance. I am most interested in improving it. We have different priorities so we may not overlap that much or that well in conversation. But others ...

To the right person what I have said is clear. It is fine that to you it is not. Picking at the English of my post is definitely not a good idea. Perhaps you have never come across a conversational style of writing, within which conclusions are known to the author but not the reader, and so the auth...

Right back at ya chap.

I'm sorry crow, but what you call analysis I call the banal and meaningless. Citing trivia regarding small samples of lineup data and absently posing but never answering questions is not the path to enlightenment. You again, in that last comment, fail to understand that in the aggregate of expert op...

I mean, if you genuinely think you see more of what players are and are not than the staff who work with them, then I honestly don't know what to say to that. The point you've missed, or failed entirely to understand, is that in the aggregate these will net out. That does not mean the estimator won'...

Without wading in to all this discussion of luck and other such things, I feel the need to point out that the initial post in this thread smacks of a failure to understand what RAPM is. Statements such as the idea that RAPM is regularised in order to predict out of sample RAPM are entirely incorrect...

closed doors I have no doubt many have found that step to be a blunder, and have also located the better path. Out of curiousity, within AIO metrics which ones did you use and between EPM and LEBRON which one did you prefer? EPM now, to me, seems better than LEBRON. Previously I thought they were a...

V-zero, say or not say what you want, but I'll ask: Does your model build entirely on individuals or does it explicitly consider lineups as a building block at all? Can you meaningfully model coaching lineup management in abstract or in matchups? Is the lineup chaos such that it preferable to ignor...