APBRmetrics

I'm always curious about data sets. It'd be interesting to see the same sort of model with a bayesian inference approach instead of ridge regression.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-gtC2 ... ovg/videos

Dan Cervone, Jeremias Engelmann, Weihua An, Steven Mintz, and Andrew Hoegh are basketball-specific talks, though many of the techniques are more generic.

Yeah, I misread that as "a quarter during the regular season". 200 minute samples are certainly much more representative. It's not always up to the coaches though. I don't know the Cav's line-ups were, but I can't really blame David Blatt for Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving getting injured. It...

> ... Would only take one quarter of the available regular season time to do so but, no, the best teams did this level of testing on only a small share of these lineups. Seems like a big mistake to me. A quarter is around 22 possession pairs. Is that really a statistically significant sample? If we ...

I think the statistical techniques are published. http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/joeSillSloanSportsPaperWithLogo.pdf AFAICT Plus minus is just a counting stat. Adjusted plus minus is a least squares regression. Ridge adjusted plus minus uses a ridge regression instea...

In the mass consumption box score it will mostly be more sausage-made-from-numbers stuff like RAPM and WAR rather than raw data. Single number stats are much more 'accessible' to people and space is precious. In general, we can expect the historical trend of caring about what happens to the ball and...

That's some nice reading. Normal priors make for easy and familiar math, but they seem like an odd choice. The NBA represents the top millionth of the population with respect to basketball ability, so while NBA players are all borderline superhuman, we should expect most of them to be relatively clo...

I don't think we are looking to just change the results based on what we find. But, use them as a tool to backup what we see. ... This may seem like a sarcastic question, but why go to the trouble of measuring things if you've already made up your mind? Are you looking to track player improvement o...

Looking to help improve efficiency is the goal for our team on both sides of the ball (obviously). Looking for ideas in going about calculating it ... It seems like you're looking for additional 'primary metrics'. Stuff like 'points off fast breaks', 'shots contested', or 'passes forced' that could...

It seems like a question of economics. If basketball ever gets big enough in Europe for them to start hiring young talent for serious money, the NCAA will face real pressure to loosen their rules. The club leagues of Europe don't have the same kind of monopoly leverage that the NBA and NCAA enjoy in...

I like the Nylon Calculus articles, but I'm not a huge fan of Disqus.

... It would be tough to measure this precisely in terms of real time vs game time because of stoppages, but it might be something to look into. There are other plausible explanations - players need to find their role on the court too. Regardless, this seems like something that could be tested with...

I am basically just looking for a place to see a general ranking of players so I can quickly and roughly analyze how good players are to as accurate of an extent as possible. Especially if you don't have any quantitative application in mind, my advice is to start with the understanding that there w...

... Is there any consensus regarding which metrics are the most accurate in judging a player's value? AFAICT the consensus is that the compromises required to make a single number metric mean that there is no single best metric. I'm not an expert on the corpus of existing basketball analysis, but i...

I share an interest in using timeouts and fouls strategically to keep stars on court and not overly winded. Perhaps it is somewhat more beneficial to have other guys good at getting to the line on court getting usage with star after he has been out there 6-8 minutes than primarily shooters. Perhaps...