APBRmetrics

Many of the "advanced" box score stats we use can be improved or at least made more precise using play by play data. The. 44 coefficient used to estimate possessions is just one example. usage and ast% assume that there isn't any change in pace when the player is on/off the court, not nece...

~20 shots over however many post-seasons makes for small sample theatre... using minutes left and point margin thresholds to get at clutch just illustrates how trivial and unserious arguments about clutchness are, as the names change every time you change the thresholds or sample.

Thanks for the heads-up, Crow. seems to be back online now, thankfully.

This might give you some idea... http://www.48minutesofhell.com/san-antonio-spurs-100-detroit-pistons-89-no-one-knows-what-makes-the-spurs-so-good Matt Bonner was nonplussed when, for about the third time in our lives, I asked why he was so good at crushing plus/minus. Actually, I asked what it felt...

While Matt Bonner was being discussed I wanted to chime in with my pet theories. I'd start by looking at his on/off four factors impact and teammate profile. For example in 2012 Bonner was paired in the frontcourt with Splitter 53% of Bonner's total minutes, Duncan 29%, and Blair 12% with almost no ...

With play by play data with timestamps couldn't you get team (or x's teammates') fg% by time left on the shot clock, while player x is on/off court? If ellis and lebron are guilty of this their late clock usage would have to be lower, seems to be the opposite for lebron this year ref:82games.com

Actually, he changed it this year, and apparently it's all calculated differently now... so on the WP front I have been very ignorant

What I find shocking is the supreme lack of numbers used to critique Wins Produced. There is a awful lot of talking, but no one actually attacking the numbers. That I'd like to see! One is a number. Defensive rebounds are worth about one point in the WP formula, the same value as a steal or offensi...

Could we get this thread locked?

Maybe I should try again, a little bit clearer this time. WP gives out credit/blame to players by putting box score activities in terms of points. A possession is said to be worth about one point. A rebound or steal is a possession your team gains for free, so it's basically a point. A turnover is a...

I just think it's not consistent to say that A. box score events like rebounds have concrete, consistent value in terms of wins and losses and B. that contribution is more valuable depending on the 1-5 position that player is assigned. If a steal or ORB is worth one possession, full stop, how can it...

As you pointed out earlier, Berri and the WP crowd want to argue with people who don't think about basketball statistics at all. They want to go after conventional wisdom and casual fans. The only way anyone will accept the claims he makes - especially the claim that WP is the true language of wins ...

I dare say we'd be better off ignoring WP... WP is basically a harmless scam and Berri a harmless huckster. It's a miracle tonic, free for all, please buy my book and increase my exposure. It's not up to us to call him out on it, and if some people who buy his books go on to buy Basketball on Paper ...

For what it's worth Bulls opponents shot just 43.4% eFG while Asik was on the floor in the reg. season. 47.2% off.

Gibson, Brewer and Watson surely have something to do with that mark, and they rate well in that category too.

Slowly I hope APBRmetrics get more integrated into this sport. I would bet slowly, reluctantly, and only when there's no alternative. There's already something of a backlash against apebear metrics in general and even specific planks of our platform (efficiency rather than PPG, the value of on/off ...