Search found 882 matches

by DSMok1
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

That makes a lot of sense, Colts18. I would like to somehow do things that way, but it certainly adds a lot of computational complexity. For many leagues, that data will not be readily available. I also don't think it can actually work if the metric is nonlinear. For a linear metric, it would be a v...
by DSMok1
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Yes, Ben's box creation formulas are intriguing. I will be evaluating what can be borrowed reasonably. Thinking about shooting, we know that 2-point percentage has nothing to do with shooting skill. However, free throw shooting has everything to do with shooting skill. It would be interesting to con...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Just asking for ( on this post in response for request for feedback) what everyone else got without asking. Thanks for the replies on most ideas. Treatment of personal fouls, technicals / ejections not mentioned but I guess you've decided not to do anything there. BPM is available for college baske...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Instead of treating minutes played as a linear variable, what about a step-wise function? Maybe treat players over 25 minutes the same or closer to the same than in the linear approach. 15-25 minutes per game and a high % of games when health as the second step. Then third and fourth steps. The arg...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bench strength
Replies: 6
Views: 1903

Re: Bench strength

Typically in the playoffs the bench matters LESS than in the regular season. In the playoffs the top 7 or 8 players see more of the minutes unless there are blowouts.

Lou and Harrell actually 3rd and 4th on the team in minutes in the playoffs, so calling them "bench" is kind of artificial.
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

bbstats wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:37 pm
Random aside - are per-100 stats in the scope of BPM 2.0?
Yes. They already are included in the current version, in essence.
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Did you just try to minimize squared error the first time around? If you're looking to reign in outliers you could look at raising your p in your L^p norm minimization? Not sure how much that'd change your average error or how well it'd work, but worth looking into. I did originally, yes. Because I...
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

RyanRiot wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:20 pm
If you're comfortable with including a position variable, you can try including a position and 3PA rate interaction like ATC used in Dredge.
That's a good thought, I'll look into that.
by DSMok1
Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

This sheet shows the existing BPM vs. this new RAPM basis I will be using. The major issues I see: Point Guards are systematically undervalued Post players are not estimated as accurately (this could be because more of their value is from defense). https://public.tableau.com/views/PeriodRAPM/Dashboa...
by DSMok1
Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

"Yes, standard box score. " Does this mean you are retreating from the use of "advanced" stats like Reb%, Usg%, Ast% ? These are pretty simple ratios of raw player totals, and team / opponent totals, minutes adjusted. ORtg and DRtg are slightly more complex, just including possession estimates. Eit...
by DSMok1
Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I think with boxscore is fine and very helpful to those who hasn’t have play by play or another tracking system, BPM still rolling the models to make predictions so I believe is pretty good. I totally agree. There are many applications for Box Plus/Minus beyond the NBA that do not have comprehensiv...
by DSMok1
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Mike G wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:31 pm
I think if your center gets five 3-pointers while your PG gets 5 offensive put-backs, you have the same number of points as you would have if the roles reverse.
Right. I believe positions are only useful in assessing defensive credit. On offense I don't think positions add anything.
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

It is relatively easy to determine position strictly from the box score. No, height/weight would not be included. It seems kinda circular at that point. Not to say it wouldn't work. Would you lean towards a small or large number of positions/roles considered? (eg guard/wing/big vs Whitehead's 23 of...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

eminence wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:59 pm
I'm not sure how position would be implemented reliably from the box score, height/weight or what?
It is relatively easy to determine position strictly from the box score. No, height/weight would not be included.
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

To do this project, I have worked with an NBA team (special thanks to them!) to develop an improved RAPM basis. This basis provides average RAPM over 6 year eras, and handles aging/role changes via a Bayesian prior. These shorter eras allow a far better coverage of outliers (like LeBron). Can you g...