Search found 904 matches

by DSMok1
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Supposing 5 players all go the same 40 or 48 minutes and get varying number of offensive rebounds; and we credit them with the suggested values of .18 when they get the OReb, .04 when a teammate gets it -- they add up like this: pos: C PF SF SG PG Tot OReb: 4 3 2 1 0 10 @0.18 0.72 0.54 0.36 0.18 0....
by DSMok1
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

It is an interesting discussion! Ultimately, if offensive rebounders are really not that valuable, a box score regression on a good RAPM basis should show that ORebs are not highly valuable. And to some extent that is the case--Offensive rebounds have a larger P-Value than just about every other typ...
by DSMok1
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 63
Views: 23604

Re: 2019 playoffs

To follow up: The RAPM "part" of a combined RPM-style metric with a good SPM prior will not look at ALL like vanilla RAPM (which regresses towards 0). Rather, it will look more like "what is showing up in the PbP Lineup data that is not showing up in the SPM already". For many (perhaps most) players...
by DSMok1
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Recently, I evaluated another angle to the linear GmBPM regression. I allowed a different intercept/constant for each position, just to see what would happen to the coefficients. Interestingly, only one coefficient changed much. The AST coefficient jumped from 0.43 to 0.60. The coefficients for all ...
by DSMok1
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Box score stats only (i.e. anything that can be calculated from the stats we have from the 80s.) No PbP stats, not even things like "assisted by" ratios. Nothing super complex that can't be done by someone with Excel and a good knowledge of math. Focus on Explanation, not Prediction. What happens s...
by DSMok1
Wed May 22, 2019 1:20 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Mike G wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 1:16 am
Still no sign of Westbrook '17 : BPM = 15.6
And Harden peaked in 2015 ?
I'm sorry, I should have clarified the dates. This is only 1997 through 2016, which is the 20 year sample I am working with.
by DSMok1
Tue May 21, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

An update on this "GmBPM2" Linear model effort: I bootstrapped the standard errors of the regression coefficients shown above (the one with shooting from various locations split out) and found that the shooting terms were all highly correlated and had very large standard errors. I decided to combine...
by DSMok1
Fri May 17, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

...maybe some scoring shows more for the individual player, while other scoring is more generic (anybody could do it). Also, some scoring may be more valuable from a spacing perspective... In an earlier table, you gave these values: 3fg 3.11 3fga -0.82 2fg 1.25 2fga -0.48 ft 0.74 fta -0.21 Adding t...
by DSMok1
Fri May 17, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Well, for this linear GmBPM model, I won't be adding a height or any other interactions. However, for the full new box plus minus model, these things certainly need to be explored further. I am leaning towards using a position indicator rather than height, since I think that is more applicable to wh...
by DSMok1
Fri May 17, 2019 2:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Did you use per 100 possessions or per game data to determine the coefficients? I have not thought about nor put in anywhere near the amount work you have at this, but it appears to me that per game stats more accurately reflect single year RAPM than per 100 possessions stats or advance stats (othe...
by DSMok1
Fri May 17, 2019 2:53 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

These are not the classic 4 Factors but it would be good to regularly offer these 4 components (or some other variation) for GmBPM2 and season level BPM2. Maybe BRef could also offer BPM2 on its splits page. More detail, less case that it is a blackbox hard to interpret. If BPM2 components were div...
by DSMok1
Thu May 16, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

A quick look at how this translates to analysis of a single game. Here I am using the version with each shot location treated separately. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_yEqHQYGR1_LxI3v0zZ8UM1uh9whU5cpbk841J7nXi8/edit#gid=2079359 This is last night's Game 1 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Fi...
by DSMok1
Thu May 16, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Interesting GmBPM (that's the linear BPM) evaluation: What if we let the points from 3 pointers, 2 pointers, and free throws each have a different value? Remember, this regression attributes value to the player AND ALL LEFTOVER VALUE TO THE REST OF THE TEAM. So--maybe some scoring shows more for the...
by DSMok1
Wed May 15, 2019 2:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Steal worth 9 times what an offensive rebound is worth in GmBPM2? I'd like to hear the justification of that. Both earn the ball. Twice as much? That might be justified. Defensive rebounds worth twice as much as offensive rebounds? Since when? I remember the fuss folks made when a metric-maker clai...
by DSMok1
Tue May 14, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41332

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Is this the whole thing? No "advanced" stats, nor interactive terms like Ast*Reb? Any idea why 2fga are more costly than 3fga? Because they are less likely to be OReb'd? Earlier you said fouls were not significant of anything. Now they're almost as bad, as an assist is good? Westbrook'17 is not eve...