Search found 362 matches

by schtevie
Sun May 12, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 34
Views: 34643

Re: New DeanO Pod

Following up now, with another Popovich coaching season in the books. Performing the same exercise of summing up player RPM changes for 2019 vs. 2018 and imputing all "unanticipated" changes to be the coaching contribution, what do we find? Well, about what any right-thinking person should expect......
by schtevie
Thu May 09, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: DeanO on The truth about playoff lineups
Replies: 2
Views: 2404

Re: DeanO on The truth about playoff lineups

My comment is that it is behind a paywall.
by schtevie
Sun May 05, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Goldsberry's Maps
Replies: 9
Views: 3573

Re: Goldsberry's Maps

This other very recent post of his is also strong on chart and weak on analytics (I suspect owing primarily to his having had a big swig of Popovich kool-aid): http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26633540/the-nba-obsessed-3s-let-fix-thing Some fix, to move the 3 point line to an "eFG%=50%" distance o...
by schtevie
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Goldsberry's Maps
Replies: 9
Views: 3573

Re: Goldsberry's Maps

From the linked article: "The last chapter of “SprawlBall” is about the aesthetic of the game, and in it Goldsberry considers a different lens for the utility of analytics. Since the 2004 publication of “Moneyball,” the seminal book about the Oakland Athletics by Michael Lewis, analytics has been th...
by schtevie
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Was it a good/bad shot?
Replies: 4
Views: 3649

Re: Was it a good/bad shot?

If in-series averages are a good measure of the opportunity cost from 0-4 seconds, I guess it was a bad shot:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-shotc ... ery%20Late
by schtevie
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41108

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Daniel, very interesting stuff. A few questions: (1) If PGs are undervalued in BPM compared to a six-year TOTAL RPM, what positions are correspondingly overvalued? (2) How does this undervaluation divide between O and D (for all positions)? (3) Can you provide summary statistics for average (possess...
by schtevie
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

So, today we add the next longest-serving GM (the GM-ish Riley and Paxon, to follow): Sam Presti of OKC. And this is an interesting story. from 2007 to 2014, eight successive drafts where each was actively participated in (i.e. no trading of picks, if I have the story straight, just picking to direc...
by schtevie
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Addition of the day, the last of the top-five longest serving GMs (not sure how to handle Pat Riley): Donnie Nelson of the Mavericks, a franchise with (at one time at least) a distinct analytics-heavy reputation. So, how well have they picked in first round since 2005? Well, there were only four yea...
by schtevie
Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

So, today, let's add the same draft performance measures for the longest serving GM not yet featured: Ernie Grunfeld of the Wizards. Between 2004 and 2014, in the eight out of the eleven drafts where a first round pick was made, he oversaw the selection of the 9.8th best player available! That seems...
by schtevie
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

To my understanding, BPM is a cummulative stat, one which estimates how the scoreboard is affected when a player is on the court. VORP incorporates playing time, right? I am less interested in that as it puts to much of a weight on injuries and the subjective beliefs of coaches. As noted, my estimat...
by schtevie
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Now let's add another franchise. How could it not be the Spurs? The Popovich/Buford combo since 1999, I believe. Utilizing the same stats, we find that when they had and utilized first round picks they chose the 3.5th best player, and then forewent (in a slightly convoluted interpretation) 3.2 point...
by schtevie
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 5338

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Crow, I might add a few words on this aspect of the hometown team, on this drippy, late winter day. Taking a look back to first round picks, beginning in 2003 (what I think is the first Ainge-influenced draft, and we're talking about Ainge here, right?) I chose to organize data a bit differently. I ...
by schtevie
Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 9906

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

In the general lineup finder (not via the team pages) the default sort is Net Points.
by schtevie
Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:48 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 9906

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

The calculation of the -12.9 counterfactual is as follows. All B-H-I-T lineups (prior to tonight's game) were a +11 net points in 276 minutes, what implies 1.91 net points per 48 minutes (approximate 100 possessions). The GH-B-H-I-T lineup was a -13 net points in 139.8 minutes, correspondingly a -4....
by schtevie
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 9906

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

Alright, that's a wee bit embarrassing. Aside from having incorrectly transcribed the net effect for one lineup, I presented data as being in terms of per 100 possessions (well 48 minutes, as we are making that assumption) when what was shown was in terms of 1 possession. A factor of 100 mea culpa. ...