APBRmetrics

Net Points ratings https://espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts have you actually looked at this at all? look at the 2024-25 data. it has an offensive and defensive rating for each player. hard to take this methodology the least bit serious when it shows nikola jokic with a higher defensive rating (67.15)...

Okeedokee... I will: Experienced team analysts, do you think your work was worth 1+ win per season? 10-20 wins or more in a season. you recommend the right player, and that player is signed, stays healthy, and plays major minutes, makes all the difference in the world. My first read was that this se...

Crow, thanks for the heads up to this recently published article (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/15270025251328264) purporting to show non-trivial value of NBA analytics hires. I enjoyed it and have some thoughts... First, I would be remiss not to note the unemphasized result, that NB...

Mike, I see what you're driving at (stupid joke intended) but i don't think it's exculpatory. The change in shot selection over time lets one infer the quality of those close-in shots that didn't go quite as planned. And they were crap. (That's exactly why they were replaced over time by three-point...

I think there's another point to make note of regarding the change in shot selection between 2002 (again, chosen as that is the first year that B-R.com includes layup data) and today. I would like to think it is now, at long last, generally recognized how terrible the NBA was in how slow it was in a...

Just to complete the thought, we can add in the observed changes between 2002 and today from the other B-R.com zone distances (10 to 16 feet, and 16 feet to the 3 point line). The inferred quality of mid-range attempts that were eliminated by transitioning to the "modern" 3P NBA from mid-r...

I think the idea that there is a problem and disconnect between the dunk and layup and shot distance data on basketball reference is incorrect. You can calculate what the implied FG%s are for dunks and layups from the data there, and they only makes sense (i.e. dunks coming in around 90% and layups ...

Yeah, it's very speculative whether you could just time-machine the 1955 Syracuse Nationals into today's NBA and have an average team. Equally uncertain is whether the 2025 Bulls would do very well if they teleported to 1955. The shoes, the courts, the fans, the travel, the food, the racism..., One...

Many thanks to Daniel for providing a reference to his work a decade ago. What a nice trip down memory lane. And he's quite right that in these GOATiness discussions, era adjustments matter...a lot. (Maybe he'll have interest someday in updating the graph?) Typically, people's views on these matters...

Just to better address the point of Kareem's notional BPM in the second and third years of his career (those of max. Win Shares) I was kind of hoping that I could get away with being lazy, and someone would have filled in the few missing BPM variables with reasoned estimates, thereby possibly confir...

Mike, color me more than a wee bit skeptical that Kareem's three years of WS/48 you mentioned would translate to a BPM of 12.2 to 13.2. How did you establish such equivalence? If one cared, one could put in informed "upper bound" hypothetical values for the missing variables in the BPM for...

So, a few points in reply to various comments... First, it is refreshing for the creator of a statistic to be most concerned about its relevance and efficacy, and I look forward to the implications of the next round of BPM "de-Russell Westbrookification". This having been said, I still am ...

If one is considering regular season BPM as the referential metric in determining GOATiness (as one should) one really ought not ignore the elephant (er, 280 pound Serbian) in the room. Though Nikola Jokic clearly has not yet had anything approaching a full career (is he even at his peak yet?) his r...

A point of theory regarding the lack of apparent diminishing returns. One might expect an above average player moving from an average to an above-average lineup to suffer statistically, from an individual perspective, as a consequence of there being but one ball to share. However, such effects will ...

Interesting stuff from Jeremias, and not being on Twitter, I am grateful to Crow for calling attention to the work, what seems very worthy of comment and discussion. Summarizing the coaching results, we see: Offense Defense Total Best 2.4 -4.8 6.6 Worst -3.3 5.2 -6.1 Range 5.7 10 12.7 stdev 0.84 1.9...