APBRmetrics

Normally I've seen people using whatever metric- MAMBA, LEBRON, EPM, DARKO etc. and take that to generate win probabilities based on the minutes and simulate the season (or you can just calculate and add up based on the schedule). But I honestly think that is maybe unnecessarily complicated and that...

Yeah these are my projections. I thought I described those models in here earlier. But to explain again: the LEBRON and EPM ones use the prior 3 seasons of LEBRON/EPM data + some of our talent grades + offensive and defensive roles + minutes consistency etc. to predict the next season LEBRON/EPM and...

So seems like a bunch of people were interested in seeing where LEBRON/DARKO rank but don't see it included?

From various testing I've done over the years, I don't think 1 year tells you anything about how good a metric is because I think there's a lot of variance in how projections do from year to year (as there is in the NBA standings). I don't even think 3 years is a large enough sample. IMO to truly se...

The explanation is here: https://x.com/knarsu3/status/1848785953768247488 I predict LEBRON (or EPM) in year Y+1 using the previous 3 seasons worth of LEBRON/EPM data + some other data like role + Age etc. I might try a time decay version eventually, tho I'd basically have something along DARKO at th...

Yeah both were predictive versions of the metrics and used the previous 3 seasons + an aging curve and some other data. They weren't the prior seasons individual metrics which probably would not do as well. Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad bett...

Idk if it's too late or not but here they all are as well as documentation that they were done before the season started: The LEBRON projections were where they always were: https://www.bball-index.com/season-team-projections/ but I guess they never got posted. https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/uMWcabuc5...

Is there a reason the LEBRON and DARKO projections aren't included? Worse than the last report but not as bad as yesterday. . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 TmTj 6.33 8.7 .52 WShr 7.27 9.3 .42 dtka 6.63 8.5 .52 Crow 7.40 9.5 .46 avgA 6.74 8.8 .49 emin 7.52 9.6 .45 KPel 6.83 8.3 .55 24pr 7.55 10...

Here are Pelton's: Pelton Wins PHO 49.0 DEN 47.9 NO 47.6 MEM 46.1 MIN 45.7 LAC 43.6 DAL 43.1 GSW 41.9 LAL 36.8 POR 36.6 SAC 36.5 UTA 34.9 SAS 31.2 OKC 26.9 HOU 26.7 BOS 53.9 MIL 49.5 PHI 48.3 TOR 47.4 ATL 46.2 MIA 45.9 BKN 45.6 CLE 42.9 NYK 41.5 CHA 40.8 WAS 40.0 CHI 38.1 IND 38.0 ORL 30.6 DET 25.7 ...

@mike Can you add in R^2 as well?

Either works for me. BIPM might make more sense

Mike G wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:16 am Great, that makes all kind of sense. I'll try to work it in for the next summary.
Meantime I suppose I can edit all the previous ones, replacing LEBR with BBIP -- or BIPM, if you prefer -- I just like 4-character column headers.

So the issue was that the column header was not named correctly (both BBIPM and LEBRON were named LEBRON in the column header) but if you look at the select metric button, you have 2 options: LEBRON and BBIPM. The 2 different metrics have been there since the start of the season but again, the colum...

Can you include the BBIPM projections as well?

Here they are from preseason:
https://imgur.com/a/iCR5aIw

I think the problem is that with the shift to Second Spectrum, they've changed a lot of the algorithms used to calculate some of the metrics used within PT-PM (for example, Rim FG% allowed is different) so Andrew needs to re-run the entire metric using the new data. It's why I haven't gotten a chanc...

Sorry for the late reply but I'll go with the adjPM-PTPM as my official projections. It's the 2nd column in that table. Would've liked to test out the SHACPM based ones but I think it's way too far off on DEN/DAL (who seem like they should be swapped, maybe there's a coding error that I didn't catch).