APBRmetrics

CLE E 55.6 GSW W 68.0 MIL E 47.9 HOU W 58.5 TOR E 47.9 SAS W 52.9 BOS E 47.5 OKC W 52.0 WAS E 47.2 LAC W 50.9 CHA E 46.7 MIN W 49.8 MIA E 44.8 DEN W 46.5 DET E 35.2 NOP W 44.9 ORL E 33.3 UTA W 43.9 IND E 30.9 POR W 42.1 PHI E 30.3 MEM W 38.2 NYK E 28.4 DAL W 32.3 BKN E 28.0 LAL W 25.7 CHI E 26.2 PHX...

So this post is not anything more than a table of facts, plus a question about what "home court advantage" means. It seems to be the point differential benefit for the team playing at home. In the playoffs, if you aren't at home, your opponent is at home; you not only lose the HCA, the op...

Ignoring games is silly. You can just weigh those odd games more so it's even:
https://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.b ... yoffs.html

It's recency based, but they do use the full season. Cleveland was so awful in the last chunk of the season that they collapsed.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ar ... nderrated/

So is it error^.5?

What's SMRE?

And how do the rankings change with Pythag wins?

A bit of analysis of PER vs PER2.0 for 2016-2017 data: On average guys 20 or higher on PER are 21.4% higher on PER2.0 for an average gain of 5 points. Guys 15-20 on PER only gain 6.7% or a bit more than 1 point on average. Guys 10-15 on PER lose an average of 8.4% or about 1 point. Guys below 10 on...

I think you missed the point there, and I'm surprised you're defending PER at all. Did you notice I was ignoring FTs too? The point was showing how the metric responds to points and FG%. And I don't think you read that close enough: "Kobe assists" are already factored in because missed sho...

No, they often share samples of the minutes projections, and they're usually really solid. I think they just overfit the similarity/age curve. Look at MIN's projection again, which did not factor in Thibs -- they were over the optimistic Vegas line by a good distance. They assumed some incredible de...

I was doing similarity measures and I noticed Ryan's entries are extremely similar to Nathan's blend, which he posted on twitter and uses Vegas numbers. They're similar to the point where it's unlikely they're his own. But I can't tell if he stole Nathan's blend with one tweak or what.

Are you allowed to use Vegas lines in the prediction? I thought you weren't.

How is 538 doing? You can choose preseason predictions:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

Lowry typically crushes him in on/off or adjusted +/-. It's not something to be written off. It's a pattern. Metrics like BPM or RPM have team adjustments, at least indirectly, where the collective rating equals the team's rating. If you do the same kind of adjustment BPM does with Philly, Embiid's ...

RMSE is a traditional, common measure of model fit. It's been utilized in many fields. You can find answers of why squared errors are used pretty easily on google and it's taught (or at least I hope it is) in early statistics classes. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/48267/mean-absolute-erro...

Analytics-based projections liked Houston because they saw that Howard was overrated, Nene is always loved by advanced stats, their defensive issues were overblown, and people put too much emphasis on their 2016 season and not 2015.