APBRmetrics

Team Record losses [...] Portland Trail Blazers 46 36 The other posts here have the Blazers at these number of wins: 22, 23, 23, 28 and Mike G's estimates are 23, 28, 30, and 33. I think the estimates of 22 or 23 are a little too pessimistic; mid-to-high 20s is my guess and a glance at several onli...

IIRC the Raptors had created a tool that generated ideal shadow defenders who could be inserted into their video or court diagrams, showing where theoretically ideal defenders would've placed themselves. This looks like it takes that idea a bit further . It looks like an electronic whiteboard where ...

This article is the fourth one in rlee's April 2 Basketball Intelligence, but is interesting enough to get its own post. I'd known a little about how Pabail Sidhu had been a student at the Univ of WA and worked his way into a data analysis position with the Warriors, but this provides a lot of deta...

This article by Sarris and Ghiroli in _The Athletic_ covers baseball only, but the same question arises for all of the major sports. With the explosion of new data available, who does the data belong to: who gets to use it, and when? Knowledge is power; when team officials sit down to negotiate wit...

I'd known that famed computer scientist Donald Knuth did basketball analytics when he was an undergraduate at Case Institute of Technology (now Case-Western Reserve University) some 60 years ago. But I hadn't known that IBM had made a film about him at that same time, until I stumbled upon it here ....

The Bucks have a 44% chance to win it all! Even better, 7 games into the season and they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs! Those were calculated by Kubatko, right? He does good stuff, but most playoff probability prediction systems fail to regress to the mean enough, and that one does so t...

Homecourt is software that will track the' movements of players and the ball, shots, etc. While we've had SportVU and other systems such as ShotTracker for almost a decade now, NEX Team , the company that created Homecourt, claims that their system works without special sensors or devices, all one ...

1. Yes, you are reading that correctly. The linear AST% coefficient is negative. However, the h*USG%*(1-TO%)*i*AST% part of the regression is positive, and the interaction term l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%) is also strongly positive. [...] I know that's a a clumsy explanation, but in essence the quirks of the ...

The catch is that they seem to be the team's marketing data analysts, not the basketball analysts. The webinar is being produced or at least sponsored by Qualtrics, which makes survey software but has recently been branching beyond surveys into analytical tools. https://www.qualtrics.com/events/webi...

RayL may've mentioned this in BI, but I haven't seen an explicit cite. What Aaron Barzilai's been doing: advanced hoop stats for women's Division I college and soon WNBA players. Maybe Div 2 and Div 3 in the future. I actually attend more Div 3 women's basketball games than any other level or league...

Cool compilation and reviews. But Dowsett is oddly dismissive of 82games.com; is he unaware of the history behind it?

The article says that the UW has a couple of new hires (to replace Sidhu?), including Kreigh Warkentien. A name like that jumps out to the reader, sure enough she's Mark's daughter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warkentien

Here's an entire article, with photos, about a basketball game during the Sloan Conference. Not the statgeeks' pickup game, but with some very familiar names playing. Wearing monitoring devices while playing in MIT's gym, it doesn't get statsgeekier than that.

Perhaps the more important thing to take away is that if you start by p-hacking, you don't necessarily have a great chance at finding the pattern again in out-of-sample testing. I'd make an even stronger statement: the researcher will almost always find much less statistical significance in out-of-...

... However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts ... I don't really understand what that means. Can you elaborate? There are a number of ways to measure the uncertainty of a forecast. Bottom line for ampersand5 is simply this: regression to the mean. Meaning that the more uncertain (or l...