Search found 159 matches

by mtamada
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Computer Science pioneer was also hoops analytics pioneer
Replies: 2
Views: 3218

Computer Science pioneer was also hoops analytics pioneer

I'd known that famed computer scientist Donald Knuth did basketball analytics when he was an undergraduate at Case Institute of Technology (now Case-Western Reserve University) some 60 years ago. But I hadn't known that IBM had made a film about him at that same time, until I stumbled upon it here ....
by mtamada
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 130
Views: 62985

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

The Bucks have a 44% chance to win it all! Even better, 7 games into the season and they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs! Those were calculated by Kubatko, right? He does good stuff, but most playoff probability prediction systems fail to regress to the mean enough, and that one does so t...
by mtamada
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Spreading the video data revolution?
Replies: 1
Views: 2159

Spreading the video data revolution?

Homecourt is software that will track the' movements of players and the ball, shots, etc. While we've had SportVU and other systems such as ShotTracker for almost a decade now, NEX Team , the company that created Homecourt, claims that their system works without special sensors or devices, all one ...
by mtamada
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: John Stockton and BPM
Replies: 9
Views: 4870

Re: John Stockton and BPM

1. Yes, you are reading that correctly. The linear AST% coefficient is negative. However, the h*USG%*(1-TO%)*i*AST% part of the regression is positive, and the interaction term l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%) is also strongly positive. [...] I know that's a a clumsy explanation, but in essence the quirks of the ...
by mtamada
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Cavs' data analysts giving a webinar
Replies: 1
Views: 2381

Cavs' data analysts giving a webinar

The catch is that they seem to be the team's marketing data analysts, not the basketball analysts. The webinar is being produced or at least sponsored by Qualtrics, which makes survey software but has recently been branching beyond surveys into analytical tools. https://www.qualtrics.com/events/webi...
by mtamada
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Aaaron Barzilai and HerHoopStats.com
Replies: 1
Views: 2187

Aaaron Barzilai and HerHoopStats.com

RayL may've mentioned this in BI, but I haven't seen an explicit cite. What Aaron Barzilai's been doing: advanced hoop stats for women's Division I college and soon WNBA players. Maybe Div 2 and Div 3 in the future. I actually attend more Div 3 women's basketball games than any other level or league...
by mtamada
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "NBA Statistics Treatise"
Replies: 13
Views: 9768

Re: "NBA Statistics Treatise"

Cool compilation and reviews. But Dowsett is oddly dismissive of 82games.com; is he unaware of the history behind it?
by mtamada
Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pabail Sidhu
Replies: 1
Views: 2718

Re: Pabail Sidhu

The article says that the UW has a couple of new hires (to replace Sidhu?), including Kreigh Warkentien. A name like that jumps out to the reader, sure enough she's Mark's daughter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warkentien
by mtamada
Tue Mar 07, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball
Replies: 3
Views: 2731

Re: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball

Here's an entire article, with photos, about a basketball game during the Sloan Conference. Not the statgeeks' pickup game, but with some very familiar names playing. Wearing monitoring devices while playing in MIT's gym, it doesn't get statsgeekier than that.
by mtamada
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: p-hacking
Replies: 14
Views: 7863

Re: p-hacking

Perhaps the more important thing to take away is that if you start by p-hacking, you don't necessarily have a great chance at finding the pattern again in out-of-sample testing. I'd make an even stronger statement: the researcher will almost always find much less statistical significance in out-of-...
by mtamada
Mon Oct 24, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 137541

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

... However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts ... I don't really understand what that means. Can you elaborate? There are a number of ways to measure the uncertainty of a forecast. Bottom line for ampersand5 is simply this: regression to the mean. Meaning that the more uncertain (or l...
by mtamada
Thu May 05, 2016 8:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Mark Cuban's video for Indiana Univ
Replies: 0
Views: 10458

Mark Cuban's video for Indiana Univ

This commercial for Indiana University is a couple of years old or more, but has some (distant) relevance to basketball analytics and some amusement value. A young freshman named Mark arrives on Indiana University's campus in 1979, throws himself into college classes and campus life, and turns out ...
by mtamada
Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability
Replies: 43
Views: 20604

Re: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability

Wow. That's not something that I would have expected. I didn't expect that either, and it wasn't even my intention to use that as a predictor, but rather wanted to confirm a calculation I made regarding the mentioned championship odds. I guess, that at least a part of the better prediction is based...
by mtamada
Sun Apr 03, 2016 7:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability
Replies: 43
Views: 20604

Re: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability

Interesting idea, but it's subject to the same problem that WPA (win probability added) has in baseball: not all teams, and thus not all players, face the same "potential win probability to add". E.g. some games are seesaw affairs, as with the Celtics at the Blazers a couple of nights ago (early lar...
by mtamada
Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Who are the optimal opponents for scratching starters?
Replies: 7
Views: 5121

Re: Who are the optimal opponents for scratching starters?

I would expect that there are non-linearities in the relationship between win probability and point differential, and that these non-linearities may be masked because your graph and equation seem to be using aggregate data (seasonal total for each team) rather than data on individual games. A really...