Search found 4409 matches

by Mike G
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Replies: 11
Views: 293

Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest

This past season, there was negative correlation between contestants guessing the East/West differential and individual team performance. FWIW. Since the Bulls dynasty, west has dominated by avg of about 57-43% wins vs the east in RS. year W/E 1998 .421 1999 .548 2002 .552 2003 .603 2004 .628 2005 ....
by Mike G
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Per Game vs Per Minute?
Replies: 2
Views: 67

Re: Per Game vs Per Minute?

It's popular these days to go per-possession or per 100 (or 200 if you count defensive). But possessions are estimated and/or averaged, or for whatever reason different for team and opponent; and some things -- turnovers? -- probably are more minute-related than possession related. "Per 36 minutes" ...
by Mike G
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Raptors 4 , Warriors 2 avg score 111.5 - 105.8 Pyth wins 4.00 - 2.00, eWins 3.50 - 2.50 eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 1.23 Kawhi Leonard Tor 41 .590 25.8 9.8 3.7 1.8 2.9 1.0 2.42 .91 Stephen Curry GS 42 .585 23.8 4.9 4.6 1.3 2.7 .1 1.74 .67 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .553 17.3...
by Mike G
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 59
Views: 17951

Re: 2019 playoffs

shadow wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:26 pm
Quinn Cook had a -3.2 RAPM in the regular season in my version:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
ooops, my bad


thanks
by Mike G
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 59
Views: 17951

Re: 2019 playoffs

Thanks, JE So it seems some players may have radically changed 2019 RPM due to playoff performance. Are playoffs weighed more heavily than the RS? Are recent games more impactful than early season? Was BPM ever a component of RPM? Was this a misconception all along? Did anyone but myself have this i...
by Mike G
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How did you do for 2018/2019 regular season?
Replies: 8
Views: 183

Re: How did you do for 2018/2019 regular season?

That dip at 30-50% of the season is likely due to these providers' insistence on regressing to their prior expectations. As the season wore on, it became unavoidably clear the Clippers and Bucks and Blazers were actually doing this well, and others were going to fall below pre-season predictions.
by Mike G
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 127450

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Your predictions are set in stone before any games are played, and they are not updated. Different websites give regularly updated season win projections based on current W-L, MOV, and whatever else. I just use Basketball-Reference.com which regresses pretty heavily toward .500 Some entries are stri...
by Mike G
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 59
Views: 17951

Re: 2019 playoffs

Trying to re-create RAPM by looking up BPM on b-r.com and RPM on espn.com, and assuming RPM is the avg of BPM and RAPM. If so (and I assume this isn't precisely correct), then rapm = RPM*2 - BPM Shadow's RAPM doesn't exactly concur with some of these reconstituted rapm, nor does it have any consiste...
by Mike G
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Dubs getting virtually nothing from bench. I'll again say they probably should be criticized for doing too little about that. And for more than just big men. They should have had more than 5 recent all-NBA and all-stars on their team? Or they should have only injury-proof all-NBA players? If they w...
by Mike G
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:20 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 59
Views: 17951

Re: 2019 playoffs

Far out. Now we can estimate total points above or below norm. pts+ 1998- Min RAPM 1604 LeBron James 10049 7.66 919 Tim Duncan 9370 4.71 902 Manu Ginobili 6075 7.13 691 Draymond Green 4332 7.66 532 Kevin Durant 5598 4.56 490 Kevin Garnett 5158 4.56 436 Kobe Bryant 8508 2.46 425 Shaquille O'Neal 6382...
by Mike G
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Other stats. Durant Win Shares must have gone south with the team going 1-3. His WS/48 was .218 coming into the Finals and .208 after his 12 fab minutes. xyz Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW .79 Curry 209 23.2 .180 6.1 1.85 .78 .42 .80 .43 Thompson 156 19.4 .133 3.6 1.36 .43 .22 .44 .32 Green ...
by Mike G
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 playoffs
Replies: 59
Views: 17951

Re: 2019 playoffs

Shadow, can you put minutes or possessions alongside player rapm? My understanding is that players with few minutes are shifted toward zero. And the upshot is that the top and bottom ends are unpopulated by such players. But it would be nice to just see how players rank relative to others with 100+ ...
by Mike G
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Raptors 3 , Warriors 2 avg score 111 - 105 Pyth wins 3.38 - 1.62 , eWins 2.94 - 2.06 eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 1.08 Kawhi Leonard Tor 40 .596 27.9 10.6 4.0 1.8 3.1 1.1 2.57 .80 Stephen Curry GS 42 .593 26.0 5.3 4.5 1.2 2.7 .0 1.85 .50 Pascal Siakam Tor 39 .525 16.6 7....
by Mike G
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

From the previous tables: Klay Thompson is having his best series of this postseason, even having missed a game. Draymond, Cook, Bell, Looney, and McKinnie are all having their worst series. Most of those (and Cousins) are arguably doing nothing or worse. Yes, that's harsh; but bad is bad. Not a goo...
by Mike G
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Recap of participants thru 3 rounds and 4 games of Finals. The 2nd column is per game 'impact' in eWins/G. Warriors: Bell mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 1 .003 3 .333 5.3 6.7 2.1 2.2 .0 2.0 .54 2 .005 2 .667 12.4 6.4 3.0 .0 .0 5.8 1.35 3 .039 14 .587 17.9 5.7 5.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.42 4 .005 6 .667...