APBRmetrics

Good work, but at this point we should be able to find the blog on our own and links each day aren't necessary. Thanks.

Not necessarily half court. It just gives us a better picture of which teams are good on offense and defense by separating the too. The Rockets aren't as good on offense as we think they are. They score about a point more per100 possessions because of something that happens on the other side of the ...

I did this: http://www.hickory-high.com/the-differe ... and-skill/

Massive step for NBA analytics, and can't wait to see what else you guys have coming over the next few days. Thanks a lot for investing in this, Royce et al. Jerry, have the RAPMs from years prior to this one on stats-for-the-nba been updated with your new coach and score effect findings ? I'd imagi...

I too am leaving Sunday morning, but I'll be sure to hit up the Fours on Thursday night to hangout.

I suspect Scott Brooks is stealing a little bit of credit from the OKC player development staff. Durant, Westbrook, and Reggie Jackson have made big leaps that aren't covered by the typical aging curve, and Jeremy Lamb was in the D-League last year and is now a solid role player.

And this is still the problem with bottom-up models that assign values to discrete actions: it's unclear how to distribute credit between the Tony Parkers and the Kawhi Leonards. Until there's a way around this, top-down APM type things will be more accurate.

SUPER important thing to keep in mind while looking at the results that are questionable: the sample size. The authors mention that many of these players have under 20 games of SportVU tracking. Chris Paul had only 11 games! I think you guys are focusing too much on the results of the model and not ...

I think OKC have the highest probability. I'd say they're a 85% bet to come out of the West while Miami and Indiana are both 50/50. And I think OKC can beat both of those teams in the Finals. Also, what's the rationale behind having the Blazers with better title chances than the Clippers?

Steve, a couple rebuttals 1. You point out that JR was 1-7 in this game. Do you have statistical evidence that this is relevant? And 10 shots is minuscule sample size to judge how he's shooting in a specific situation. And again, the factor of being wiiiiiide open matters a lot. 2. Because of the st...

nbacouchside wrote:So I just ran the correlation for UAR with PER and the correlation was .964. Wow.

Umm..that would tend to happen when the basis of the stat is the boxscore PER formula.

Nope. Copy/paste away.

I'm getting an error when I click on the XML link. Anybody else?

Thanks for putting this together and making it public!

Oh, and here's ESPN's summer Forecast

East:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95599 ... -standings

West:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95609 ... -standings

SCHOENE's are here: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/id/9892134/final-2013-14-schoene-projections Wages of Wins are here: http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/previews Might want to throw in previous season's SRS too. Here are mine: Atlanta Hawks 45 Boston Celtics 26 Brooklyn Nets 56 Charl...