Search found 294 matches

by xkonk
Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: P values in your basketball stats
Replies: 2
Views: 1232

Re: P values in your basketball stats

I use p values in my job because we're expected to but would much rather not. I'm not on top of basketball research as I used to be but I don't think p values are nearly as prominent there. And why would they? What hypothesis are you testing? If someone's RPM is above 0? I don't think that's an impo...
by xkonk
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:13 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Next big trade possibilities
Replies: 9
Views: 4445

Re: Next big trade possibilities

Dunno if you saw the news before this post, but Pau was bought out and is expected to sign with the Bucks.
by xkonk
Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA - DRPM
Replies: 6
Views: 2968

Re: NBA - DRPM

This article doesn't give you the DRPM number specifically, but from a quick read-through I think you can piece together a) superstar type players don't change much when they change teams, presumably on offense or defense; b) defense is a bit more reliable than offense but still not a great correlat...
by xkonk
Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trivia
Replies: 221
Views: 243435

Re: Trivia

I mean, I'm sure they're not random. Davis (or anyone) will get more blocks when they play against someone who tends to have their shot blocked, for example. But they could still be modeled with some 'random' distribution. I would guess blocks and other things are overdispersed, so you should use so...
by xkonk
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trivia
Replies: 221
Views: 243435

Re: Trivia

... there's a half a percent chance it would happen. So about one in 200 players would have such an anomaly, in a given stat, of players with around 10 seasons? With some 10 stat categories, it could be one in 20-ish for some statistic? Anthony Davis has several games this year with 5 blocks, but n...
by xkonk
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:59 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trivia
Replies: 221
Views: 243435

Re: Trivia

Last night, the Pelicans were without Anthony Davis; but they beat the Rockets in Houston, and Jrue Holiday had 6 blocked shots. Guards (and G-F) with 6+ blocks in a game: G w 6 blk mo-yr tm opp D Johnson 01-77 Sea Bos M Jordan 12-86 Chi Sea J Rose 02-96 Den Bos D Christie 03-97 Tor Chi K Gill 11-9...
by xkonk
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins
Replies: 14
Views: 8483

Re: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins

When are these stats calculated relative to the win differential? Like if the Dubs are +8 in 2015-16, is their age from the beginning of the 2015-16 season? The end? Is it minute-weighted or anything? Basically, I'm curious if the correlation is an artifact of teams that are having bad luck (and thu...
by xkonk
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Statistics Learning
Replies: 4
Views: 4851

Re: Statistics Learning

Hi, First of all you need to made a difference between "Statistics" and "machine learning" because are not the same. There are a lot of books or resources but I could try coursera, edx or other MOOC. Hope it helps Kind regards Thank you for the information!!! What's the difference between statistic...
by xkonk
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Bayesian RAPM

Of course, we should all probably apply the XKCD correction https://xkcd.com/2059/
by xkonk
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Bayesian RAPM

Bayesian inference, as I understand it in its most general sense, requires that the prior describe our understanding of a value or distribution without some additional information, and then the additional information is taken into account to produce the posterior value or distribution. The prior do...
by xkonk
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Bayesian RAPM

I used the information from the full current season for the prior for each stint. This is all run as one huge regression. I did not weight the priors--they were strictly subtracted out in the pre-processing. The greatest impact is obviously on lower minutes players, who in vanilla RAPM get pulled t...
by xkonk
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Bayesian RAPM

My main ones have to do with how the prior is implemented. You said that it varies across seasons, like for Kobe. When you use MPG and team strength, is that from the prior season or the current season? E.g., for a stint from game 50 in 2016, is the MPG/team strength from 2015? From 2016 but only ga...
by xkonk
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Bayesian RAPM

I have lots of questions, but not sure how much Daniel wants to get into it.
by xkonk
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 14780

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

Is this 20 year dataset age adjusted? It's better than age adjusted. It uses a Bayesian prior based on playing time each season. Shouldn't it be both? Young guys who play a lot of minutes may be good now, but they might just be predicted to be good in the future. Unless the prior is based on the pr...
by xkonk
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Hot Hand
Replies: 9
Views: 6520

Re: Hot Hand

The first step in the scientific enterprise, certainly in academia, it to show that you can measure something. If you can't show that something exists, how would you go about studying why or when it happens? permaximum suggests that hormones are involved. Great! What exactly would researchers compar...