APBRmetrics

I always thought an NFL game was fairly random. But then it was pointed out (I forget where I read it) that NFL betting lines for wins are fairly big. I don't remember how they compare to a single NBA game, but both are much larger than MLB, for example. From that perspective, I wonder what lines fo...

Also, pardon my innumeracy, but what does 3e-04 mean? It's scientific notation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_notation . As a shortcut, you can think of the e as meaning slide the decimal to the left (if a negative number) or the right (positive). 3e-04 takes 3.0 and makes it .0003. 3e4 w...

Sounds like you're measuring, or have the ability to measure, everything you want to. And you're off to a great start! I have two thoughts. One you already have in there somewhat, which is the possible adjustment for point guards. I would make it a little more broad than that and think about what ro...

I'm also not Evan, but some things I think I understand: The data set he read in is titled 'open 3s' or something similar. Assuming the data set was created correctly, it doesn't contain all three-point attempts. Also, a quick look at how many threes teams take in a year (something like https://www....

The far more relevant factors in getting through grad school are whether or not someone also has a full-time job, whether they have a spouse and/or kids at home, whether or not they are paying their own tuition, and how strong their work ethic is. The SAT issue is just an example of the problem; it...

The tail-of-population idea has two other problems I can think of. 1) It assumes that the NBA cleanly lops off the ~450 best basketball players, which it doesn't. It likely does get the top, I don't know, 100? I don't have a strong opinion. But below a certain number there is certainly some randomne...

I like all the stuff in there, but like some other posters I have some hesitancy about the luck adjustment. Especially considering that towards the end they say, "The LEBRON values only tell you what they tell you, which is what has happened." If your interest is really in telling you what...

If I'm understanding your question, I think it depends on if the summary measure is redundant with the 'full scale' of statistics you mention according to your analysis technique. Take a simple example where your full scale of statistics is only two measures, A and B, and your analysis is some kind ...

I would love to see a process where the priors are validated within the Cross validation process, but I don't know how to do that. I would argue from a philosophical standpoint that priors shouldn't be 'validated' in any particular way. They should be defensible, but otherwise a prior is just suppo...

I didn't ask about drastically different game scenarios, nail biter or blowout. In either type of game, how is a last minute bucket more or less valuable than one in the first minute? I'm somewhat thinking out loud here... say we have some kind of dramatic, god-like influence on an upcoming basketb...

It isn't laid out in extreme detail but there's a little more detail on this page https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... ric-works/ . Skim down to the PREDATOR/Projections section.

It says 'at 1/5 speed', so I assume real time is the GIF length x5? The interesting part for me is that Steph seems to release faster because he releases lower than other people. His chart is right next to Russell Westbrook and, at least at 1/5 speed and just using my eyeball, they both get to 7 or ...

. Mavs mpg On Off Doncic 35 -1.7 12.8 Porzingis 28 -8.1 17.0 F-Smith 26 1.5 3.7 Kleber 25 -1.7 6.8 Wright 24 8.2 -3.2 Hardaway 23 11.7 -5.9 Brunson 21 14.4 -6.6 Curry 20 -6.3 8.6 Powell 19 7.7 -0.7 Jackson 13 -3.4 4.8 Boban 4 39.3 -1.2 Lee 3 -11.6 3.4 Barea 2 0.0 2.6 I just copied the table that Mik...

I use p values in my job because we're expected to but would much rather not. I'm not on top of basketball research as I used to be but I don't think p values are nearly as prominent there. And why would they? What hypothesis are you testing? If someone's RPM is above 0? I don't think that's an impo...

Dunno if you saw the news before this post, but Pau was bought out and is expected to sign with the Bucks.