Search found 287 matches

by xkonk
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Statistics Learning
Replies: 4
Views: 2046

Re: Statistics Learning

Hi, First of all you need to made a difference between "Statistics" and "machine learning" because are not the same. There are a lot of books or resources but I could try coursera, edx or other MOOC. Hope it helps Kind regards Thank you for the information!!! What's the difference between statistic...
by xkonk
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Bayesian RAPM

Of course, we should all probably apply the XKCD correction https://xkcd.com/2059/
by xkonk
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Bayesian RAPM

Bayesian inference, as I understand it in its most general sense, requires that the prior describe our understanding of a value or distribution without some additional information, and then the additional information is taken into account to produce the posterior value or distribution. The prior do...
by xkonk
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Bayesian RAPM

I used the information from the full current season for the prior for each stint. This is all run as one huge regression. I did not weight the priors--they were strictly subtracted out in the pre-processing. The greatest impact is obviously on lower minutes players, who in vanilla RAPM get pulled t...
by xkonk
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Bayesian RAPM

My main ones have to do with how the prior is implemented. You said that it varies across seasons, like for Kobe. When you use MPG and team strength, is that from the prior season or the current season? E.g., for a stint from game 50 in 2016, is the MPG/team strength from 2015? From 2016 but only ga...
by xkonk
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Bayesian RAPM

I have lots of questions, but not sure how much Daniel wants to get into it.
by xkonk
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 9024

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

Is this 20 year dataset age adjusted? It's better than age adjusted. It uses a Bayesian prior based on playing time each season. Shouldn't it be both? Young guys who play a lot of minutes may be good now, but they might just be predicted to be good in the future. Unless the prior is based on the pr...
by xkonk
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Hot Hand
Replies: 9
Views: 4690

Re: Hot Hand

The first step in the scientific enterprise, certainly in academia, it to show that you can measure something. If you can't show that something exists, how would you go about studying why or when it happens? permaximum suggests that hormones are involved. Great! What exactly would researchers compar...
by xkonk
Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM top 40
Replies: 4
Views: 2390

Re: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM to

Guessing based on the high impact and low minutes, maybe coaches are only playing centers when they know they'll be successful. And/or, after a couple year trend towards "small ball", perhaps you have to be a pretty good center to get on the floor at all these days. If it's the latter, you might exp...
by xkonk
Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:26 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: p-hacking
Replies: 14
Views: 7127

Re: p-hacking

So how would having independent data sets reduce the chance of an accidental p<0.05 result on an individual trial? I don't think it would on an individual test per se, but if your results differed across sets or you used an independent set for out-of-sample testing and noticed a big drop in accurac...
by xkonk
Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:30 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: p-hacking
Replies: 14
Views: 7127

Re: p-hacking

... If we have a bunch of researchers independently checking similar hypotheses, then we expect 1 in 20 of them to get a p value of 0.05 or less by accident, right? Under some circumstances I could envision this being true, but certainly not if the researchers were using different data sets or if t...
by xkonk
Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:15 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: p-hacking
Replies: 14
Views: 7127

Re: p-hacking

Perhaps the more important thing to take away is that if you start by p-hacking, you don't necessarily have a great chance at finding the pattern again in out-of-sample testing. I'd make an even stronger statement: the researcher will almost always find much less statistical significance in out-of-...
by xkonk
Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: p-hacking
Replies: 14
Views: 7127

Re: p-hacking

The article is right in that doing what he described is poor statistical practice. It basically invalidates the p value, so if that's your basis for deciding what's "real" or important, you're in bad shape. But Nate and Crow are right that it could be the start of a more rigorous analysis that could...
by xkonk
Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Setting Up Excel File for RAPM
Replies: 33
Views: 21062

Re: Setting Up Excel File for RAPM

That's why it's crucial to share the source PBP dataset, the regression-ready data and coding steps to reproduce the results. Unfortunately none shares that. They just publish the results and update them time to time and that's it. I just want to second this thought along the lines that one of my m...
by xkonk
Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help needed with Master Thesis
Replies: 3
Views: 2539

Re: Help needed with Master Thesis

There's an R blog network where I've seen occasional NBA posts. You could try digging around there. http://www.r-bloggers.com/