APBRmetrics

J.E.

Sure. Sent PM.

miabett: Team strength of schedule and margin of victory are both included in the model and have a powerful effect on predictions. That said, there are nuances to the relationship between level of competition and expected NBA production that the model glosses over. For example, some skills like scor...

statman: regarding the # of years, are you talking about the IVs or the DV? My DV is just the single best season a player ever has. I found that with college data the most recent and the previous year carry almost equal amounts of information, but all years before that only offer a very marginal imp...

JimiHendrix: All of the things you note are perfectly reasonable, but the point remains that there really is not a precedent for a player with McDermott's statistical profile succeeding in the NBA. Steals and blocks are the main culprit, but his poor distribution statistics add to the concern as wel...

"Hey VJL, i noticed you have some guys in your spreadsheet that have decided to go back to college, such as Delon Wright and Brice Johnson. Just a heads up. :)" I'm going to post final numbers and start knocking guys off the list after the tourney. That should be the final update until the...

I don't want to be too negative about McDermott, but I definitely don't think he is a wise choice in the lottery. His steals, blocks, and distribution stats are absolutely terrible for a prospect, and have been throughout his college career. That said, his scoring ability is pretty unique as well. M...

Obviously too early to completely give up on Porter, but the list of guys to fail this hard as rookies and become more than marginal players isn't very long.

On a related note... Cody Zeller looks to be turning his season around over the past month and change.

Statman... "You aren't the first that I've seen list Jordan Adams above his teammate Kyle Anderson - but I've watched a ton of Bruin games, & that's hard for me wrap my brain around." I feel the same way. I have watched a lot of UCLA, and while both players rate really high statistical...

I would start thinking about it. Probably best to give him until the next trade-deadline unless a really nice deal opens up, but it is looking like Irving is going to settle into that sub-max appropriately paid semi-star category (at best), which has limited value in a capped league.

Would love to add in the Euros, but it would be a big task. Pelton did Euros last season and I like his methodology. Gets roughly similar results for college guys compared to my model, so for now I am just happy trusting him. Unfortunately, that won't be coming until much closer to the draft.

Dean: That is pretty interesting, and at least a little surprising. I don't think I will work Ts into the model, but I will keep my eye on that pattern. I share your interest in getting at the mental aspect of prospects, I really think there is a lot there. Many of the extreme cases of a player not ...

A lot of people have pet theories about how different college coaches/systems impact the statistical output of their players thus biasing simple statistical projections. I assume there is a lot of value in this approach, but it is difficult to integrate into my projection models without serious conc...

Re: Wiggins Just to help think about it. If I bump Wiggins' STL rate from 1.1 to 2.0 his score jumps up to 7.7. Still behind quite a few guys, but in the range where he may still be a star. That said, once we get to that level of assessment we also need to talk about how dependent Wiggins is on tran...

Good call. I was wrong to paint Lillard as a case of the "surprise shooter". Nearly 40% from range on 7 attempts and 88% FT is elite. re: Parsons and Lowry Parsons is an excellent example. He fooled the model completely (1.4 EWP). Terrible FT shooter, mediocre 3pnt shooter.. not to mention...

Crow: My sense in that the Humble does a good job of discriminating among the thicker group of "really good, but not great" statistical prospects and catching guys like Muscala who the numbers like but may never do much (either because they aren't particularly good or they never get a legi...