Search found 137 matches

by Nathan
Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 139917

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

This is mildly off topic, but I was thinking...it's well known that teams perform somewhat better when trailing, and it's common practice to account for this when calculating APM from play-by-play data. It would also make sense to account for this in calculating team ratings; for instance, a wire-t...
by Nathan
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 139917

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

This is mildly off topic, but I was thinking...it's well known that teams perform somewhat better when trailing, and it's common practice to account for this when calculating APM from play-by-play data. It would also make sense to account for this in calculating team ratings; for instance, a wire-to...
by Nathan
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Post draft reactions
Replies: 6
Views: 6272

Re: Post draft reactions

He's been a foul drawing machine at every level he's played at so far, and that's typically the mark of a dangerous scorer at the NBA level what difference is there between sexton and say jerryd bayless? both 1 year in school, drew fouls at high rates, similar high scoring for freshman, similar ass...
by Nathan
Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Post draft reactions
Replies: 6
Views: 6272

Re: Post draft reactions

Super high scoring volume, in particular from the free throw line, is a positive sign for Sexton. He's been a foul drawing machine at every level he's played at so far, and that's typically the mark of a dangerous scorer at the NBA level. Every other aspect of his game seems mediocre or worse, thoug...
by Nathan
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 21955

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

My system is based on comparing it to recent all-stars, one issue for centers is Embiid, Towns, Cousins, Davis if you call him one, all had among the best statistical resumes anyone has had recently. Some other centers like Noah and Horford were also very good although older. So the bar is very hig...
by Nathan
Wed May 30, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Replies: 34
Views: 24797

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Aha. I'm guessing there's more variation from one playoff series to another, than there is from RS to PS overall. I calculate each series separately. In Hou-Min, steals were not as heavily weighted as normal; turnovers, blocks, and fouls were extra heavy. In Hou-Uta, these were all normal. In Hou-G...
by Nathan
Tue May 29, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Replies: 34
Views: 24797

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Playoff BPM is I think adjusted for the regular season BPM of the opponent. Are you saying it could be re-calibrated to include playoff numbers? Seems that would have a lot of echoes. Or are you saying it could be nothing but playoff data for opponent strength? That would make every team in round o...
by Nathan
Tue May 29, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Replies: 34
Views: 24797

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Maybe this should be its own thread, but I was wondering...has anyone made statistical plus/minus based *only* on playoffs data? Obviously the coefficients would have higher uncertainty, but it would be very interesting to see if they change in any significant way from their regular season values.
by Nathan
Sat May 26, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Explaining minutes & money (and values)
Replies: 13
Views: 8949

Re: Explaining minutes & money (and values)

Clarkson is also backing up perhaps the weakest player (statistically) ever to start and play so many minutes. Since 1984, most minutes in the Conf. Finals by players with fewer than 40 pts, 20 reb, and 10 ast: <40-20-10 yr Min Pts Reb As St Bk JR Smith 18 179 31 15 6 1 1 B Bowen 08 172 36 5 5 6 1 ...
by Nathan
Sat May 26, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Explaining minutes & money (and values)
Replies: 13
Views: 8949

Re: Explaining minutes & money (and values)

Here's how the Cavs look in these ECF thru 5 games, in eWins/480, PER, WS/48, and BPM Below that list (inverted order) are correlations with minutes for their top-5, top-6, thru top-12 in mpg. Cavs e480 PER WS/48 BPM mpg Calderon .06 0.1 -.043 -11.1 3 Osman .03 8.9 .022 -2.2 4 Hood .79 6.7 .013 -9....
by Nathan
Fri May 25, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Explaining minutes & money (and values)
Replies: 13
Views: 8949

Re: Explaining minutes & money (and values)

How do the Cavs look? Lots of shock/dismay among fans at decisions to play Thompson (and Green) over Nance, Smith over Korver, Clarkson over...well...anybody.

EDIT: Just saw that you mentioned they're bottom-10 at the end. I imagine they're even worse in the playoffs.
by Nathan
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 21955

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Wendell's defensive projection would be enough to warrant interest or strong interest even if he isn't that much in NBA on offense or an't be relied on to deliver that in today's game. Don't know about Jevon Carter yet. Trae Young with high uncertainty? Makes sense to me. Mikal Bridges... I was hig...
by Nathan
Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 21955

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Carter has some lateral quickness issues that make him a bit of a worse prospect than his statistical profile suggests, not really close to the level of passer Love is, though Carter is certainly above average at it. Does he have below-average lateral quickness for a center prospect? Also, what mak...
by Nathan
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 21955

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

I agree on Jackson. J Porter, I have been running into fans. Still need to read & watch. Well not "need" really... habit... Basically, it would be a shock if Jontay doesn't turn out to be one of the better passing bigs and one of the better shooting bigs in the NBA based on his production in colleg...
by Nathan
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion
Replies: 27
Views: 21955

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

I haven't really dug into this yet. What projection do you think I most out of norm / controversial but you feel confident in? Well, I did try to estimate uncertainties in my projections, which is sort of uncharted water. The players I'm most confident in, based on that, are Jontay Porter and Jaren...