APBRmetrics

An interesting baseline projection to add might be using the Marcel the Monkey projections that Basketball Reference produces for Win Shares per 48 minutes on their player pages (see, e.g., Jayson Tatum's player page and projected WS/48 of .178 under the "2024-25 Projection" section of his...

Probably not going to get projections done this year, unfortunately. Best of luck to everyone.

Death, taxes, and people getting weird (wrong?) results when running RAPM in R My first guess was that it's just missing an rubber-band effect adjustment. But they're so compressed, it doesn't seem like that would fix the whole issue It looks like the lineups tutorial is in R but that the actual li...

It looks like a formulation of % of team's (TSA + 5*AST) works well for offensive load/attempted creation. Here is the Visualization with the revision made: https://public.tableau.com/views/ofNBAStats/Position2DCreation?%3AshowVizHome=no#2 Thanks for helping steer me the right direction, Kevin! o7

The new methodology is to take % of team's (AST + Pts scored above 0.85*TmTS%) . In other words, the baseline is 85% of the team's true shooting percentage--points scored above this threshold are indicative of creation. Anything less is just...somebody shooting. This really highlights the importanc...

My RMSE and r-squared looking embarrassingly bad at the moment. Yikes.

Even if a player is traded, one can assume he's traded for equal value -- in proficiency * minutes -- so it's a wash in the net wins provided. In the case of Harden, it seems likely his value , by any measure, is not going to be met by another team's offer. Why would one assume this? There's lots o...

Team Boston | 56-26 Milwaukee | 50-32 Toronto | 42-40 Phoenix | 49-33 Philadelphia | 46-36 Golden State | 48-34 Miami | 42-40 LA Clippers | 42-40 Memphis | 47-35 Minnesota | 47-35 Denver | 48-34 Orlando | 34-48 Dallas | 44-38 Cleveland | 50-32 New York | 47-35 Utah | 37-45 New Orleans | 44-38 Oklah...

+------------------------+------+ | Team | Wins | +------------------------+------+ | Boston Celtics | 57.0 | | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.9 | | Golden State Warriors | 49.6 | | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.4 | | New York Knicks | 47.6 | | Denver Nuggets | 47.6 | | Milwaukee Bucks | 47.2 | | Minnesota Tim...

Hi there,

I shot you a private message on the off chance you are still reading the board without logging in (I saw that you were last active in 2021).

Luck is big. Here's a decidedly incomplete table of entries who were entered at least twice in the last 7 years. The numbers are a sort of 'percentile', as the % of entries that finished beneath you. Middle of the pack is around 50. year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 # 19 13 16 17 18 20 23 yrs...

I've been tumbling down the standings all year. Better luck next year, I guess, lol

Crow wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:21 pm https://twitter.com/knarsu3/status/1620 ... jD7QqbBzLA

Oh yeah that is a link to my Google Sheet that I try to update every day (but at the very least get done once every third day).

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:14 pm There was an update to this metric posted on Twitter by Knarsu3 recently. If interested, find it there

I don't see it.

I compared SPI to EPM on some starters that could be called weak starters. Looney, I Stewart, Avdija, Dort, Jalen Green, Sochan, S Adams. 5 of the 7 were notably higher on SPI. Fwiw. Starter factor in formula could be playing a role. Right or wrong. Bigger study would give more information, maybe b...