Search found 112 matches

by nbacouchside
Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 91
Views: 33418

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

This is a very good idea. I believe a "shooting" measure will be very significant in improving the regression. As a measure of shooting, I might suggest Ben Taylor's 3 point proficiency: (2/(1+EXP(-3PA))-1)*3P% It's part of his larger Box Score Creation metric (which might also be worth potentially...
by nbacouchside
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 91
Views: 33418

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I think one thing that I would suggest is using relative box-score statistics to league average for that season for most of the rate stats. I know in the current formulation you use relative TS% for the team that the player is on. I assume that this is because it's more predictive than using simple ...
by nbacouchside
Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opponent-adjusted pace?
Replies: 5
Views: 6509

Re: Opponent-adjusted pace?

RyanRiot wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:35 pm
Are there any publicly available opponent-adjusted pace/tempo stats available for the NBA? Everywhere I've looked seems to only have raw pace numbers. I know for NCAA Kenpom has AdjT, but I haven't found anything similar for the NBA.
This would be very useful.
by nbacouchside
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 219091

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Is Luke Walton a great, good, average coach or worse? I dunno. But right now just 1 of the Lakers 12 most used lineups is cumulatively positive and just 3 of the top 20. Could you do worse? Maybe. Results so far don't show sufficient insight, command or execution. I think Luke does well with the pe...
by nbacouchside
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 219091

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

So far LaVine is negative with his 8 most used player pairs and 6 bad to horrible. -17 per 100 possessions overall. Let's see if Dunn helps. Probably won't solve issue. LaVine has always had a negative raw plus minus. This is his worst yet. LaVine has positive offensive box score metrics. For a tea...
by nbacouchside
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 399
Views: 219091

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Beyond new management and ownership and a new coach, what to do with the Bulls? I'd trade or drop almost everybody but Carter and Markkanen. GMs usually don't do much before February, so give LaVine, Dunn, Parker some time to try to improve their trade value; but I'd be surprised if any of them wou...
by nbacouchside
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Free NBA Play by Play Data
Replies: 8
Views: 8026

Re: Free NBA Play by Play Data

I've never use the packaged, but from what I can tell these are the two scripts you would run. https://github.com/ethanluoyc/statsnba-playbyplay/tree/master/scripts You would run them as: python PATH/TO/INSTALLED/scripts/download_playbyplay.py -i <GAME_ID> -o <FILE_TO_SAVE> So if I wanted to use th...
by nbacouchside
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Free NBA Play by Play Data
Replies: 8
Views: 8026

Re: Free NBA Play by Play Data

This should have most of what you need: https://github.com/ethanluoyc/statsnba-playbyplay Can someone who knows where things are on github explain to me where I can go to see how to actually utilize the statsnba-playbyplay package? I installed it, but I have no idea wht it can do or how to use it t...
by nbacouchside
Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 12510

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Basketball Reference just put out 2018-19 per-36 minute box score projections. Don't think there's a bank for them though. Basketball-Reference does per-36 numbers for ever year, going back a ways, using a modified version of the old Marcel the Monkey baseball statline projections. It's described h...
by nbacouchside
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 128558

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Turns out that screwing up your aging curve has a pretty big effect! avg abs err RMSE avg abs err RMSE 538_ 5.05 6.34 GK5. 5.33 7.04 RyRi 5.05 6.18 emin 5.33 6.38 sbs. 5.08 6.24 Nath 5.40 6.57 cali 5.10 6.31 Josh 5.57 6.74 sndi 5.17 6.08 Crow 5.58 6.79 kmed 5.18 6.48 gold 5.62 6.78 lnqi 5.21 6.33 AT...
by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 128558

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

gonna be bringing up the rear the whole year, it seems :oops:
by nbacouchside
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:58 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 128558

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

It appears that the better entries still miss pretty bad (7 or more wins) on about 8 teams. Some of the lower performing entries miss that bad on 12 teams. A lot of the "good" teams have been really disappointing and some other teams (Celtics, Magic, Pistons, Knicks) are way overperforming expectat...
by nbacouchside
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 128558

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

I realized after the fact that I screwed something up with the aging curve I applied to all players, so I feel slightly less bad about my terrible placement this year.
by nbacouchside
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 128558

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Getting crushed. Smh.
by nbacouchside
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 Individual RPM Projections
Replies: 4
Views: 5766

Re: 2017-18 Individual RPM Projections

The r^2 between my projections and Jerry's was roughly .89, so pretty close. Advantage of mine is that you can read exactly what went into them: https://nbacouchside.com/building-my-nb ... b72d56dd51